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Flatlander

Elk & Antelope Draw Odds

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Unit 27 early archery, cow and bull, 3 bp. Thanks Flatlander!

66%, 6%

 

How about early archery. 5bs and 6a, one loyalty point

3%, 8%

 

Resident with 5 points. Early archery bull unit 1 and unit 8. Late rifle bull unit 21. Thanks!! I owe you a beer.

6%, 15%, 16%

 

Antelope Res w/ 5 pts - 8 muzzy, 18A muzzy, 18A archery

 

Elk Res w/ 3 pts - 22S Bull Rifle, 22N Bull 2nd Rifle (Dec), 22S Bull muzzy, 8 Bull early archery

 

Thank you, Sir!

Antelope - 2%, 2%, 6%

 

Elk - 16%, 28%, 7%, 10%

 

Thanks for cipherin' this for me. I have My odds at almost none to real slim.

18 pts resident unit 1 early rifle bull-unit 27 muzzy

Ooh, its going o be close. On the rifle hunt I say probably about 10%, and the muzzy hunt is probably a little better, last time the ML hunt was in 27 17 bp did it, but that was two years ago. I think you are going to be close, but if you move West one unit, you have yourself a tag.

 

I'll make it easy on him.

 

3000 - 8pts, nonres, single hunter.

 

*grin*

Its all yours. Book the trip. :)

 

 

Myself- 2pts resident elk 3125, 3027, 3132, 3128 5%, 100%, 5%, 10%

 

Antelope 7points resident 2021, 2007, 2023, 2055 2%, 1%, 1%, 8%

 

My son-2pts resident elk 3069, 3015, 3099 24% (Are you sure you got this number right?), 30%, 14%

 

Thanks again for all your help Flatlander! You are a fine example of a sportsman willing to help his fellow man! May you draw the tags of your dreams! - I just did last year!

 

Unit 7w late rifle cow.

 

2 bp. Resident

 

Can you run it with 3 bp also so I can convince my hunt group to do hunter safety next year.

 

Thanks

Harley

41%, 84% take the class

 

Sorry Flatlander, all the hunt choices for OUT2HUNT are 2015 hunt numbers. I think that skewed the numbers???

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Im sorry in advance if you have already posted this information or similar information as I have not read through all 11 previous pages. Thanks a lot for your help and doing this. I am trying to decide if we should put in together or separate for antelope

 

1st application = Rifle Antelope(only 1 Person on this application) - 1st choice = 2008, 2nd choice = 2022, 3rd choice 2009. Applicant has 13 bonus points

2nd application = Rifle Antelope (2 people on this application) - 1st choice = 2008 , and 2nd choice = 2022. 1 applicant has 13 BP and the other has 19 BP. (Person with 19bp is 85 years old and archery or muzzleloader is not an option)

3rd application = Rifle Antelope (only 1 person on application) 1st choice = 2008, 2nd choice = 2022. 19 bonus points

4th application = Rifle Antelope (only 1 person on this application) 1st choice = 2001, 2nd choice = 2003 19 bonus points

 

1st Application = Archery Elk (Only 1 person on this app) 1st choice= 3142 , 2nd choice = 3141. 8 bonus points

 

All applicants are residents of Az. I hope I put all the required information in the above text and I hope I didn't ask for to much information Thank you again Flatlander for doing this.

1%, 1% in regard to 3rd choice for antelope, thee are no hunts which can be drawn as a 3rd choice that hunt as a 1-2 choice is also 1%

Still 1% and 1%, but marginally higher than with 13 bonus points. What hurts you here is that with very few tags available, you are hoping that 2 tags are still available if and when the numbers come up.

2%, 1%

1%, 3%

 

3%, 5% (By the way I am assuming you used 2015 hunt numbers because 3142 in 2014 was a late archery hunt)

 

Maybe 1 more favor if I could please?

 

Resident elk with 8 Bonus points 1st choice = 3120. 2nd choice = 3143

 

Resident elk with 8 Bonus points 1st choice = 3114 2nd choice = 3141

10%, 14%

2% , same as it was on the post above

 

Thanks for the info Flatlander. So rather than burn my Resident 11 points (elk) how do you feel about, 1st choice for either of these units. 23N, 1, and unit 9 all early archery which would be my bestt odds to draw? VERY much appreciated!!

4%, 12%, 5% I am not suggesting that you don't burn your points on the other hunts, just be careful what order you apply in. If you want one of those other tags, by all means, put them down. But if you really want a chance at that early rifle tag, put a second choice that you won't draw in the bonus pass (like what is listed in this post) Good luck!

 

Flatlander,

 

I will try again, NR unit 10 Bull Elk lale rifle w/3 pts and NR unit 10 Ant. rifle w/18 pts

 

Thanks, Mike

As a resident you would be 26% in unit 10. As a NR, its a little tougher to tell but there should be some NR tags left after the BP. That Unit 10 antelope tag is not going to happen though, sorry.

 

Donated twice because im asking for another scenario lope Resident 6 bpts hunt 2033, 2055 / 2bpts hunts 3027, 3125 Resident 2bpts 2014, 2023 / 2bpts 3069, 3075 Resident 3bpts 2031, 2008 / 2bpts 3007, 3005, 3004. Truly appreciate it Flatlander and Kudos for coming up with a way to may your services even more helpful to others!

2014 or 2015 hunt numbers? I ask for 2014 because that is what my tables are based on, but I have suspicion that these are 2015, just want to clarify before I post the wrong data, in this case it makes a BIG difference.

 

Antelope 7 Bonus points - Resident

5B Archery

11M Archery

 

Elk 3 Bonus Points - Resident

11M First Hunt Archery

11M Second Hunt Archery

 

Thank You Sir.

Donation will be sent.

3%, 7%

11%, 16%

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How about 17 bps for speed goat. Any possibilities

Lots of good archery hunts.

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Donated twice because im asking for another scenario lope Resident 6 bpts hunt 2033, 2055 / 2bpts hunts 3027, 3125 Resident 2bpts 2014, 2023 / 2bpts 3069, 3075 Resident 3bpts 2031, 2008 / 2bpts 3007, 3005, 3004. Truly appreciate it Flatlander and Kudos for coming up with a way to may your services even more helpful to others! (ALL 2015 hunt numbers)

6 bpts hunt 2033, 2055 - 3%, 8%

2bpts hunts 3027, 3125 - 7%, 7%

Resident 2bpts 2014, 2023 - .63%m, .37%

2bpts 3069, 3075 - 8%, 63%

3bpts 2031, 2008 - 1%, <1%

2bpts 3007, 3005, 3004 - 5%, <1%, 1%

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Can you help me with mine? I have been trying to research now that this year I am a NON-RESIDENT and cant figure it out.

I have 3 bonus points. First choice 3a/3c archery bull, and 2nd choice same thing for 6a. What are my odds on both please for non-resident? Thanks!

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Flatlander, I have another client... 11 Res points for elk. Unit 9 muzzleloader 1st choice, unit 23N early rifle 2nd choice. 21 res points antelope, unit 10 first choice? Thank you sir.

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new year another pronghorn bonus point. only interested in unit 1 with 22 points. hope I live long enough to get a tag.. what say you and thanks in advance.

lee

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Flatlander, I have another client... 11 Res points for elk. Unit 9 muzzleloader 1st choice, unit 23N early rifle 2nd choice. 21 res points antelope, unit 10 first choice? Thank you sir.

1%, 1%

3%

 

It's a cruel world. But, 11 BP starts getting you in the mix for some pretty sweet archery tags.

 

13 pts residents

 

All early archery

Unit 1

Unit 9

Unit 10

Unit 27

Unit 23

100%, 6% (almost to the bonus pass), 100%, 100%, 5% North, 8% South

 

new year another pronghorn bonus point. only interested in unit 1 with 22 points. hope I live long enough to get a tag.. what say you and thanks in advance.

lee

Last year 4 out of 5 guys with 22 points drew, with only one guy carrying through, this could be the year. There were 21 other guys with 21 pts who applied last year, so you will have to beat them out but that is a lot better odds than the 3,300 applicants you were fighting last year.

 

unit 23 late rifle bull elk two resident hunters with 4 bp each. Thanks

12%

 

And another friendly request that those who ask for help give a little in return. See info below:

 

****Update****

Many folks on here have asked how to thank me, or offered to buy me a beer for my efforts. In lieu of killing my liver with 40 or 50 cold ones, I propose somehting else. If you would like to somehow thank me or the site for providing this information, please donate the $3 that beer would have cost you to Bowhunter4life's gofundme site. His son is battling Hodgkins Lymphoma and they are going to need all the help they can get. So, if you have received or would like to receive draw info please donate $3 via the link below. Let's do this for Jared!

http://www.gofundme.com/jznbaw

****Update****

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Antelope unit 7 and unit 9 general, 2 residents 22 pts and 19 pts. Thanks Dan

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Unit 6A, 11-24 Sept, archery elk, 1 bp, resident.

Unit 22N, 13-26 Nov, archery elk, 1 bp, resident.

 

Thank you, sir.

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