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Sneaker

What could this Bull be next year?

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Small 6 this year, maybe 280-290 range? If it was a good/average moisture year, what would be his normal expected results for next year, assuming he is still young? This is not in one of the prime trophy units so genetics aren't off the charts or anything.

post-8768-0-08285000-1420561604_thumb.jpg

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260-340 depending on weather, genetics, forage, predation, stress, etc.

 

I agree with the "dead" and "dinner" comments though.

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Obviously a ton of factors go into this, but if he is still alive by the beginning of September next year, Lance thinks best case could be ~340. Seems possible to me.

 

What about the average bull/unit/feed/year/growth, what percent growth or point differential do young but "nearing maturity" bulls put on? I don't even know how old bulls usually are when they first hit 6x6, 4 to 5 maybe? I'm still just in the learning stage on the species. I know some just stay 5x5 because of genetics etc.

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i would say on an average year, with pretty good genetics he should be around 320" next year. 280-340" would be a huge jump. unless the bull has absolute freak genetics, they will have to be pretty mature to reach 340". i would guess that bull is around 4 years old. bulls really start to get that "mature look" to them at 6-7 years old and seem to peak around 10. it seems like there is a year between a young bull and a mature bulll where they are usually 310-330" and the next year is when they jump up into the mature 340-350 bracket. i might be way off too, but have spent a lot of time around elk and feel that this is what i have observed

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When a bull hits the caliber of the one in your picture is when they go on my radar to keep track of. What I have seen, AZ, Nm & Co a bull like this will be in the 310" class next year. I say class as he could swing either way 10". I also have never followed many bulls in the better trophy units.

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If he only adds 3 inchs per point next year he will go up 36 Inch's just in tine length. Thats not adding the mass he will add or width. He looks to have a good frame already and decent 5ths for a young bull.

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Some people might disagree with me, but I think the genetics are good all across az. The reason the trophy units are better is age structure not genetics in my opinion. That's a good young bull, the only thing that matters about whether he'll make it next year is if he's lucky enough to dodge the bullets and arrows. If he's in an alternative management plan unit then his odds are just a bit better.

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