AlwaysMiss Report post Posted January 30, 2016 Hello All! I have been putting in for elk in Arizona for the past 3 years and still cant really figure out how to calculate their draw odds for non-resident. Can anyone help me out? I can help you out for New Mexico if that is something you would like! Thanks in advanced! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bonecollector777 Report post Posted January 30, 2016 What hunts? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AlwaysMiss Report post Posted January 30, 2016 Archery in 27 and 1 is all I have put in for. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trphyhntr Report post Posted January 30, 2016 Hello All! I have been putting in for elk in Arizona for the past 3 years and still cant really figure out how to calculate their draw odds for non-resident. Can anyone help me out? I can help you out for New Mexico if that is something you would like! Thanks in advanced! Archery in 27 and 1 is all I have put in for. 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AlwaysMiss Report post Posted January 30, 2016 Cant win it if your not in it! I know its a long shot but one day! Been drawing NM gila tags which works for me! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trphyhntr Report post Posted January 30, 2016 Cant win it if your not in it! I know its a long shot but one day! Been drawing NM gila tags which works for me! you have no chance until you have 13 points i dont think. sounds harsh but its true i just checked 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wapitibob Report post Posted January 30, 2016 You HAD no chance, you now have a slim chance. I didn't need to check. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Titanium700 Report post Posted January 30, 2016 Funny gif trophy hunter but true. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
azbugler Report post Posted January 30, 2016 My recommendation is buy a membership to hunters trailhead.com. There you can calculate draw odds based on bonus point levels. Unit 1 is one of the harder draw tags in the state and 27 is only a bit behind it. With the recent change (takes effect this year) you have a "chance" at drawing these tags. In previous years you literally had zero chance because all of the non-res tags were drawn in the bonus point pass round (only the highest point holders). This means it took 10 or more points to even be in the running. If you really want to hunt those two units, keep applying and wait. You will most likely be waiting a minimum of 5-7 years more unless you luck out. If you are open to any unit, start looking at units with better odds. A few easier draws are units 4a,4b,5a,5b,6a,6b,7e,and 8. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ThomC Report post Posted January 30, 2016 You have to add in the odds that T&A will lose your application. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Thomas11 Report post Posted January 30, 2016 U don't have the bonus points to draw in the bonus pass. Random pass basically u take total applicants R and NR and divide by number of tags left after bonus pass. Of course NR are limited to 10% total tags. So if 1000 applicants apply and there's 200 tags after bonus you would 20% odds. There's more factors at play but this a rough way to get an idea of y odds Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Thomas11 Report post Posted January 30, 2016 Gohunt is supposedly adding draw odds to their website and they are supposed to be the most accurate draw odds of any tool out there in the industry but I'm not a member. Been thinkin bout joining . Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wapitibob Report post Posted January 30, 2016 Regarding early archery, every hunt that had nr tags drop to the 1-2 Pass, issued the remaining tags under the nr cap except one. So, if you follow Thomas11's note, you can get a ratio of apps vs nr tags in that 1-2 pass and calculate rough odds. Bonus Points come into play so those with more points have the advantage of more chances for a lower draw number. Personally, If I wanted to hunt, I would heed AZbugler's advise and change units. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AlwaysMiss Report post Posted January 31, 2016 Thanks everyone for the replies! I know its a long shot but I will keep trying! One day maybe ill get lucky! If not hopefully my dollars go to good use in Arizona for wildlife! I don't know any units besides 27 and 1 and I only know a little bit about them! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lefty Report post Posted January 31, 2016 i'm 40 years old and am going to have to get my 14 year old son to explain that math equation to me 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
