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Draw Odds Question

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15 minutes ago, buckshotaz said:

Correct me if I am wrong, isn't the NR 20% only on the total of tags for deer, elk and antelope? And the NR 20% for sheep on a unit by unit basis, where a NR could never draw a sheep tag in a unit with one tag even with max points?

Unless something changed, only for deer N. of the CO River.  And the 20% is not just NR, it is total apps. i.e. the bonus pass, followed by the 1-2 pass.  5% of the bonus pass tags go back to the 1-2 (random) draw, but not sure if that is all tags, or if the percentage has changed for some species. 

Up to 10% of deer, elk and ant. could (not will, could) go to NR, except for sheep.  Your sheep statement is correct as I understand it. 

forepaw

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41 minutes ago, forepaw said:

5% of the bonus pass tags go back to the 1-2 (random) draw, but not sure if that is all tags, or if the percentage has changed for some species.

Could you explain this please? I can't find AZGFD's take on it.

 

19 hours ago, Red Rabbit said:

I am not seeing an obvious explanation either.  With 15 permits in the elk hunt, there should be 3 permits for the 20% pass (even 1 for NR).  Since they look at first choice and then second choice, the person with 21 points should have drawn.  Maybe the person's CC was rejected?

 

Thanks, RR. This is the only explanation that makes sense to me so far, but it still leaves me wondering how coincidental it is that the same issue occurred with the 20BP holders as well. 

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1 hour ago, CouesPursuit said:

Could you explain this please? I can't find AZGFD's take on it.

 

 

Thanks, RR. This is the only explanation that makes sense to me so far, but it still leaves me wondering how coincidental it is that the same issue occurred with the 20BP holders as well. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpI0lLp5Adk&feature=youtu.be

Amber explains it at about 6:10 on this vid.  It apparently is part of the 10% that would normally be available to NR - 5% can go back in the 1-2 draw, where they are available to everyone (not just NR.)

Also correction regarding my statement on availability of tags to NR - I was citing the old rule.  Currently it is 10% of all tags (excluding bighorn sheep and buffalo).  The old rule was elk, antelope and mule deer north of the CO River.

forepaw

 

 

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1 hour ago, CouesPursuit said:

Could you explain this please? I can't find AZGFD's take on it.

 

 

Thanks, RR. This is the only explanation that makes sense to me so far, but it still leaves me wondering how coincidental it is that the same issue occurred with the 20BP holders as well. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vk0Hlpam_ZE

Also, Randy explains a little more at about 11:00 on his 2015 vid.  Apparently the rule took effect in 2016.  Basically, it throws a bone mostly to NR, to encourage applying and hoping to get one of the 5% of reallocated NR tags in the 1-2 pass (from the bonus pass). 

forepaw

 

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23 hours ago, CouesPursuit said:

Can anyone help explain how a 1st choice applicant with the most bonus points for a particular hunt number doesn't draw said tag? I don't see how it is a NR cap when 1 (10% = 1.5) tag is available to non residents and my only other explanations still don't make sense when I look at the next highest point holders. 

 

Thanks

 

Hunt3148.jpg

What's the source of these numbers? I recognize it, but can't place where I've seen it...

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The 21 point app was a nr and because there is only one tag for a nr, which can’t be drawn in the bonus pass, he gets passed over. The only chance a nr has of drawing a 3148 tag is the 1-2 pass. The report shown above is the Bonus Pass report; success of 3. The five 20 point guys are also nr as is one of the 20 point second choice apps. That 2nd choice resident drew his 1st choice and was out. The computer then dropped to the 19, 18, then 17 point pools looking for residents.

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I don't know why the G&F doesn't give preference to the NR's.  They would make more money that way.   And outfitters would too.

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13 hours ago, wapitibob said:

The 21 point app was a nr and because there is only one tag for a nr, which can’t be drawn in the bonus pass, he gets passed over. The only chance a nr has of drawing a 3148 tag is the 1-2 pass. The report shown above is the Bonus Pass report; success of 3. The five 20 point guys are also nr as is one of the 20 point second choice apps. That 2nd choice resident drew his 1st choice and was out. The computer then dropped to the 19, 18, then 17 point pools looking for residents.

Thank you very much! That is clear as can be. 

I was unaware that a NR could not draw in the BP Pass.

Last question, how would one know the breakdown of R vs NR applicant by hunt number? Specifically, how do you know that one of the 20 BP second choice applicants was a resident that drew 1st choice, and it wasn't just another NR applicant? Thanks.  

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If there is only 1 nr tag under the 10% cap, it can only be drawn in the 1-2 Pass so that all nr have a chance. Part of the deal when the dept set up the 5%/5% nr change.

To get the res/nr breakdowns you need to file a public info request as those reports are not published by the dept, my cost has been $25 for the Elk reports. Even with those reports there is a bit of work involved, it's not just one report nicely formatted. The draw code was broken for years which prevented the nr info from populating the report that the dept publishes (Bonus Pass by hunt number). That error was fixed a few years ago and the nr info was included that year. The dept has elected not to include that info since; I have not asked why. A more comprehensive res/nr draw odds report has been discussed for the last 10 years, most recently (a cpl years ago) it was going to be part of a portal membership option. I suspect nothing significant will change until the dept rewrites their draw code. My last conversation about that rewrite was there was no hard schedule in place. 

As an option, Toprut has those breakdowns, paying the dept for that info, formatting it, and now providing it as part of their "peak" membership. It's my opinion, those individual point pool numbers, per point level, per hunt code, are important pieces of data for determining where you are in the line and when you might draw. Of course those pool numbers are the prior years numbers and applicants do move around. 

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Excellent, excellent reply. You didn't need to share all that but I'm glad you did and it is greatly appreciated. 

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