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Draw odds

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10 minutes ago, biglakejake said:

10 BP and very little left in the tank for me.  figuring 1) 3b early ML bull  2) 3b early archery bull(crossbow).  the archery tag seems like a little better than 50% give or take from 2019 season.

so unless i am a mile off on odds the app will go in-can you imagine wasting 10 BPs?  i can always donate a tag if necessary.  i've hunted the rut a lot as help but on my own tag?  like 2002-could be fun.

lee

10pts should put you in the bonus pass for 3b archery so you won’t have a crack at the muzzy tag but will be guaranteed the archery tag.  

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1 hour ago, biglakejake said:

10 BP and very little left in the tank for me.  figuring 1) 3b early ML bull  2) 3b early archery bull(crossbow).  the archery tag seems like a little better than 50% give or take from 2019 season.

so unless i am a mile off on odds the app will go in-can you imagine wasting 10 BPs?  i can always donate a tag if necessary.  i've hunted the rut a lot as help but on my own tag?  like 2002-could be fun.

lee

This was already commented on but to be sure you understand.  You will draw the archery tag with a zero percent chance at the muzzy.   Being the bonus pass stays at the same level from the previous year.  

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34 minutes ago, bowhunter4life said:

When I log into Toprut, it shows 2017 odds. Is the following odds being given from 2018? Looking at 13 and 14 for unit 9.

unit 9 archery last season odds for a resident:

14 pts = 46.2%

13 pts = 8.6%

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Yes, for the 2019 draw. There was 1 resident 1st choice at 19 that drew, a 2nd choice at 17, and another at 16 that didn’t draw, then 1st choice started stacking up at 15 and lower.

they issued 7 tags out of 9 apps in the 15 point pool, 6 were 1st choice.

They issued 6 out of 13 in the 14 point pool, that’s where the 46% is coming from. Not sure why they didn’t us the 15 point pool for their odds display.

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1 hour ago, bowhunter4life said:

That crazy so 15 max pool?

Depends on what you consider max pool. If you consider everyone at a specific point level a guarantee then yes.  If you mean the point level max gets to even though not everyone draws then 15 is not.  At 14 points 46% of those people drew in the bonus pass.   

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2 hours ago, dustin25 said:

Knot head what’re you looking at? I’m curious, because toprut is showing the 46% at 14 points, and 13% at 13 points

Got my information from www.hunterstrailhead.com

 

 

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On 12/30/2019 at 3:59 PM, trphyhntr said:

id rather just find someone else to hunt with on their tag than use my points for a poverty elk hunt. 

I thought the youth hunters stole all your tags?

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12 hours ago, knothead said:

Got my information from www.hunterstrailhead.com

 

 

Here is an image of the archery unit 9 draw for last 5 years.  this is off of the hunterstrailhead site.

unit 9 draw odds pic.jpg

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It’s not that I didn’t believe you, I was just wondering why toprut and your site say different odds... it might be toprut, I have come across a couple that I know are off. Probably best to cross reference if possible 

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