Effects of the virus scare?

[Edge]

29 minutes ago, HuntHarder said:

240 ounces of gold will never be worth 1.8 million.... if you honestly think gold will be 7200$ an ounce in 20 years you a VERY optomistic...

 

When my grandpa was mining it in 1970 it was $35 dollars an ounce. He put some away...in 1980 it hit $800 per ounce. A 2700% increase.

Never say never.

[HuntHarder]

You are correct, shouldn't say never, but I wouldn't set my retirement on it.  In 1930's it was almost 700$ an ounce.  40 years later it is in the $30's.  1980 it's almost 2k an ounce. 20 years later its worth $400 an ounce.  

 

S and p 500 in 1930's worth 10-20$.  Now this year average closing is above 3k, (2500) during this virus crap.  Historically gold gets smoked! 

Mine it, sell it and invest the profits.  Much better idea vs. Sitting on ounces.  Get some of that compound interest.  

[HuntHarder]

Stock market-blue

Gold- red

[n2horns]

S

[elecshoc]

So with more and more testing happening we're getting to see the growth of this right here at home.  So with testing were seeing only the people sick enough to ask for medical help.  We'll probably never really know the total number infected just due to nature of testing everyone as being too vast to complete.  

With that there's a study right now in iceland were the population is small enough that they're attempting to test as many people as possible to get a picture of the efficacy of measures and just an overall view of the situation.  With that they tested just over 4000 people who had no symptoms and found 48 who were virus positive.  If that holds up for the rest of the world 4% of the population will be carriers and infectious without a clue.  

https://www.government.is/news/article/2020/03/15/Large-scale-testing-of-general-population-in-Iceland-underway/

So with that stay safe everyone. 

[Hunterjohnny]

1 hour ago, HuntHarder said:

Stock market-blue

Gold- red

My 401K has taken such a nose dive I bet it's closer to the gold return now.  

And I spend all my time now trying to find sanitizer and TP for a production plant, there's the real gold now.

[trphyhntr]

20 minutes ago, elecshoc said:

So with more and more testing happening we're getting to see the growth of this right here at home.  So with testing were seeing only the people sick enough to ask for medical help.  We'll probably never really know the total number infected just due to nature of testing everyone as being too vast to complete.  

With that there's a study right now in iceland were the population is small enough that they're attempting to test as many people as possible to get a picture of the efficacy of measures and just an overall view of the situation.  With that they tested just over 4000 people who had no symptoms and found 48 who were virus positive.  If that holds up for the rest of the world 4% of the population will be carriers and infectious without a clue.  

https://www.government.is/news/article/2020/03/15/Large-scale-testing-of-general-population-in-Iceland-underway/

So with that stay safe everyone. 

is that a big increase in a county with over 4 million people? seriously, idk 

[Edge]

5 hours ago, HuntHarder said:

240 ounces of gold will never be worth 1.8 million.... if you honestly think gold will be 7200$ an ounce in 20 years, you a VERY optomistic...

 

Problems with this graph, it doesn't tell the entire story, here's why;

Starts out in 1930 during the great depression when stock certificates weren't worth the paper they were printed on. Gold has never been worth zero, and at the same time the government controlled and regulated its value.

Took 20 years for the stock market to show signs of recovery after '30. Meanwhile gold prices were kept artificially low until 1975. While your stock value.may be going up in price, that same dollar is going down in value.

Pretty sure I mentioned monetizing gold...thats drawing interest on your shiny stash. Not sure I'd want to put gold in some institutes vault...I like it close by where I can oogle it.

If you're around when the next depression hits, those stock certificates will make great tp but when the plumber comes to unplug your drain, have fat stacks of cash handy...or cross his palms with silver, gold.

[Non-Typical Solutions]

[elecshoc]

1 hour ago, trphyhntr said:

is that a big increase in a county with over 4 million people? seriously, idk 

With this particular virus we got to think of it like an math equation with an exponent. So in this case the exponent is 2.5.  What that basically means for over i think it was 3 to 5 days infected carriers will infect on average 2.5 people. 

So this virus if remainded unchecked will double its infection rate 2.5 time over every 3 to 5 days on average.  With the numbers were seeing it looks about right on track for that. 

Rigjt now those numbers don't seem large at all, but like with any equation with compounding interest it will Ballon up quick if unchecked.  

[HuntHarder]

1 hour ago, trphyhntr said:

is that a big increase in a county with over 4 million people? seriously, idk 

As of yesterday, 6600 test results had been returned to Az.  That picture shows 446 confirmed cases, meaning it is cold and flu season as well as allergies.  The only people who were/are getting tested are those who are really sick or who have been in contact with somebody who was positive.  This is starting to change and you can almost voluntarily go get a test in some spots, but very few.  So really out of all of the tested people, (most of whom are really sick in Az), only about 7% actually have the virus.  Out of that 446, only 6 deaths....  PRobably more suicides today in AZ than COVID19 deaths.  Those will be increasing if we continue on this trend.

[AZ8]

See!! This is why making predictions are so dangerous!  
 

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/26/the-scientist-whose-doomsday-pandemic-model-predicted-armageddon-just-walked-back-the-apocalyptic-predictions/?fbclid=IwAR0Tm_eOmss_XcmnYlHQvpyazeLgAqdTVQqcHDGFNcWGSAo0oL8PgdbECEU#.XnzespWMcm8.facebook

Ferguson said he now predicts U.K. deaths from the disease will not exceed 20,000, and could be much lower.

The Imperial College report was also the basis for the modeling used by the website COVID Act Now, which local and state officials in the U.S. then used to issue “shelter-in-place” mandates. COVID Act Now, which was founded by a handful of Democratic activists in Silicon Valley, is an online mapping tool that generates models predicting coronavirus hospitalizations, which have also already proved to be wildly inaccurate.

[trphyhntr]

i read the USA has more cases than china now. its curtains for us 

[AzDiamondHeat]

Another variable that few are talking about is the actual number of people who are being tested now vs before. The virus is not necessarily SPREADING faster now, it is being tested MORE. More tests mean more chances of positive result. Even those who showed no symptoms are being counted as "infected"(because they are) but would have never known had they not taken the test.

I think it was already fairly prevalent just nobody knew they were infected with this death sentence(because the symptoms were so mild). Now EVERYBODY thinks they have it and are happily giving up their freedoms because of it.

 

 

[creed]

9 hours ago, stanley said:

Yup!!  A wise man once told me, "Son, if you're looking for long term, it's natural resources.  Limited supply and EVERYBODY needs it...."!   Of course he was speaking of copper specifically at the time, but I never forgot that sentiment.  (Just wish I would have actually "listened" to what I was hearing and stacked-up more gold over the years....  LOL)

 I bought  a chit pot load of gold  when it was just over $450 an ounce. When it doubled I sold half of it. Best investment I ever made.