Help with figuring out odds

[cv18sro]

Hey guys, I currently have 28 Points for Antelope.  I know it changes it periodically but I have been doing 5A and 4A as 1st and 2nd choice.  I know eventually I will get drawn but for the life of me I cannot find the math to figure out my odds per unit.  Can anyone help?  I don't get frustrated not getting drawn until I hear about someone with less than 10 points getting a tag I applied for.  LOL I am 50 so I know sometime, somehow I will get drawn.  I know I can go to Wyoming or somewhere and hunt them but I am a Arizona native and would love to get a hunt in my own state.  My brother has 29 points for Elk and the funny thing is he did not start putting in the "trophy" rifle hunts until he hit 19 points.  Unluckiest guy I know.  

If you had more than 25 points would you be applying for these units?  I don't want to kill just any Buck but I am also not going to point guard if I don't find a monster.  I would be perfectly happy with a mid 80 Buck.  I built a 6.5-06 8 years ago just for Antelope and will probably shoot the barrel out of it before I get drawn LMAO

 

Anyway, if someone has the math please send it my way.  I would appreciate it

 

 

[Flatlander]

A lot to unpack here so I will do my best.

1) I assume you are a resident and not an AZ native living somewhere else now.

2) A mid-80's antelope is a monster. 82" is B&C minimum so that is roughly equivalent to a 190" typical mule deer or 375" typ bull. It used to be the case that a firearm pronghorn tag in AZ gave a near guarantee at a buck of that caliber in most units. That is not the case anymore. In most units mid 70's is a really good mark.

3) The hunts you are applying for are fine from a quality perspective. I suspect 80 is possible there, with a lot of effort. But there are very limited tags, only 1 bonus pass tag for each hunt. You may want to consider either hunts with more permits, or less popular units. There are several rifle and muzzleloader units you would have 100% odds for.

4) If your brother actually has 29 bonus points and is a resident, there are only 13 other residents with that many points. He should be able to pick a hunt and go. Unless he sat out last year, he could have drawn any hunt he wanted. Hard to call it bad luck if he is being that level of picky. BTW, where I was, the rut was cooking and there were solid bulls for the early rifle hunts.

[cv18sro]

7 minutes ago, Flatlander said:

A lot to unpack here so I will do my best.

1) I assume you are a resident and not an AZ native living somewhere else now.

2) A mid-80's antelope is a monster. 82" is B&C minimum so that is roughly equivalent to a 190" typical mule deer or 375" typ bull. It used to be the case that a firearm pronghorn tag in AZ gave a near guarantee at a buck of that caliber in most units. That is not the case anymore. In most units mid 70's is a really good mark.

3) The hunts you are applying for are fine from a quality perspective. I suspect 80 is possible there, with a lot of effort. But there are very limited tags, only 1 bonus pass tag for each hunt. You may want to consider either hunts with more permits, or less popular units. There are several rifle and muzzleloader units you would have 100% odds for.

4) If your brother actually has 29 bonus points and is a resident, there are only 13 other residents with that many points. He should be able to pick a hunt and go. Unless he sat out last year, he could have drawn any hunt he wanted. Hard to call it bad luck if he is being that level of picky. BTW, where I was, the rut was cooking and there were solid bulls for the early rifle hunts.

Typo that is what I get for typing that on my phone instead of a keyboard.  Yes I am a resident of 50 years and I meant mid 70's on the horns.  Thanks for the reply  My Brother just did a bonus point this year.  He knew if he got drawn he could not go because of a family commitment he had made out of state.  Yeah he is being very picky and I have tried convincing him otherwise but he is more stubborn than I am. His hunt and points so I quit bugging him about it LOL!!