1uofacat

for me, my odds for getting a bull tag are about 10%. The best way for me to think about this is that it's similar to bear attacks. Some have said that only 1 in 100 bears would consider attacking a man. The problem is they aren't required to come in numerical order. Same goes for getting a bull tag, they aren't required to to be given out in numerical order!

I didn’t include all the extraneous data, but if you remove all of the 200x info, each "point" has a .0075347% chance of being drawn. IOW, 13,272*0.0075347 = 100% edit: Also, that's for 1 tag... if you have 20 points your chances of drawing that 1 tag would be 0.150694%... but with 2 tags your % chance is doubled. For 200 tags, your % chance is multiplied by 200 or 0.150694*200 = 30.14%...

you have to remember there are 200 tags or "events" so therefore your chance is multiplied 200x.

agreed, but was ignoring the "max pool"...

several things... 1) Ethics relates to legality. Using ones grandparent's points to get tags is legal, therefore "ethical". Is that "moral"? Maybe, maybe not, but after 5 years of hunting licenses & fees to boost chances, the real question people should ask themselves is was it worth it for a few more % points? 2) Draw percentages, the way I read the G&F draw rules... I ran some numbers & came up with the following: Assuming there are 200 tags in a hunt & there are a total of 13,272 total "points" in that hunt's draw (adding up all applicants points randomly assigned) each point gets you 1.5069% chance of drawing one of the 200 tags. If you have 20 points you have a 30.1386% chance of drawing one of the 200 tags. Multiple hunters on one application that average 5 points/each have a 7.5347% chance of getting 4 of the 200 tags, assuming that when their app was selected at least 4 tags were left over. For that reason, their chances are slightly less than that... 3) 4 hunters averaging 5 points each does not equal 1 hunter with 20 points % of getting a tag. 4 with 5 points is same as a lone applicant with 5 points (7.53%...). 4) An applicant with no bonus points still has a 1.5069% chance of drawing one of the 200 tags. 5) This does show your chances of drawing a tag are directly proportional to your # of bonus points (someone with 4 bonus points is 5x as likely to draw a tag compared to someone with 0 bonus points). 6) I spent too much time on this... 🤔

well... perhaps it does change daily edit: It does "update" every day one logs in, so its an automatic time stamp only.

how do you know they updated your portal 3 days in a row if the only thing updated was adding your 'lope tag the first time? Did they send multiple notes stating points were updated? As far as the draw goes, we still have two accounts not updated that were submitted weeks before the deadline. My vote, as if I have one, would be either just draw now or be open/honest about when you're going to be ready. Given the powers at the G&F don't seem to feel any accountability towards John Q, our first real indication of when it'll happen will likely be a flood of those rejoicing in message boards! I doubt many will fake this due to karma! 🤣

12 years ago my 15 year old son drew a Sept rifle bull tag in 5BN, juniors cow was his 2nd choice. He wanted a bull tag because the cow he shot the prior season had a nice 6x standing in front of her bugling when he dumped the cow! That was a fun hunt, but it only lasted 1 day!

We have two sent in on Jan25th that are not yet updated.

Member 654321... exactly where did I say in the post you reacted to this had anything to do with portal accounts? What I said was, "Delays like this, & this was clearly a delay, may imply to some the entire draw system may be untrustworthy, or worse." I'll also add the simple fact that the G&F either can't or won't clearly say what the issues were/are does not instill confidence. I personally don't know the draw system will run "flawlessly" whenever they finally run the draw, nor do I know that the draw has run flawlessly for years. Exactly how is it you know? I have had questions and concerns in the past draws that were never answered, but I've moved on. Before anyone reacts with, "They don't owe us answers", or some other reasonable facsimile of this type of response, the G&F works for us and as a State Agency the AZ public records laws do apply (FOIA is for federal agencies, but AZ has similar laws). Regardless, how hard is it to just be honest? If there's an issue, admit it, fix it, and move on. This whole "secrecy" thing is what causes most doubt as answers given so far (some who posted here as well as what's on their website) are conflicting and/or don't add up, at least to me they don't. Lastly, and perhaps least important, as far as being "late", this does make a difference to some in that other state's application deadlines are fast approaching (I believe NM's deadline is this week). While the G&F hasn't missed the April 2nd deadline yet (and not expected to), it certainly would have been helpful to see the draw occur as expected. as far as "nice enough way of putting it"... there was no need to SHOUT, especially since your shouting has nothing to do with what I actually posted

I don't know about anyone else, but these two weeks are exactly that every year for me.

You're missing the point. With the $millions the G&F gets every year in app fees alone, it leaves little to no excuse for not having a "bulletproof" drawing system that we can all rely on, in AZ, PERIOD! If other states do it year in & out, why can't AZ? Delays like this, & this was clearly a delay, may imply to some the entire draw system may be untrustworthy, or worse. If the draw is fair & legitimate, which it may be, then at a minimum the IT department within the G&F appears to be incapable of providing the sportsmen in the State of Arizona the expertise we deserve. IMHO, change is therefore appropriate given concerns year after year. (Is that a nice enough way of stating it?)

Now its down to 170,000 apps? So I guess they threw out 45,000 apps as I was told they had 215,000 apps & others told similar numbers! 🤔 I guess their comment to, "keep your application receipt" may take on a real meaning! 🤣

My wife's & son's apps were submitted on or about Jan 25th & neither have corresponding portals updated as of now. Those two portals are why I called on Feb 17-ish & told specifically they would both be updated by Feb 24th or to call them back. My personal apps were submitted right after the draw was opened and both show up on my portal. Overall, I have very little confidence in anything they tell us & therefore will continue to watch for "account alerts" as well as indication on CW that cards are getting hit.

This indicates they're not going to have the portals updated before the draw... If so, what are they waiting for?

well, this is good news & bad news... Good news is THERE'S STILL A CHANCE! Bad news is we have to through a this anxiety again!🤣

It seems that the portal & app programs/subroutines are separate and not dependent on each other. There is only a hyperlink from the portal into the draw system.

how many points for the ram tag? Sitting on 19 myself...

& yes, I was tripping for sure!!!

I was expecting them to say they could see the random draw numbers I was assigned... she couldn't. That would have been enough, just to hear that.

Well yes & no. In a few past years when my apps didn't show up in the portal I was never drawn. Conversely, the years I was drawn, my apps always showed up in the portal. Calling the g&f after those draws, all they said was, "Sorry, you simply weren't drawn...". When I asked for proof they said, "Sir, you were not issued tag..." I know I'm not helping here, but at least they admit the issue this year so it's probably nothing to be concerned with.

yes, and never under any circumstances give a democrat a cookie!

Better yet, wear gloves & 2 or 3 masks when outside cutting locks off gates keeping you from your land because we all know the experts have made it clear we need to wear 2 or more masks while on federal land to protect ourselves & others from this horrible virus that will certainly kill everyone, except for the already deceased voters who continue to support these awesome people.

My family all have portal accounts. The issue was I wanted to change the cc to on my wife's app to a different card, but according to her portal account my wife hadn't applied so I couldn't change the cc. That's why I called the g&f. I was told the only way to change the cc was either through a g&f employee logged into the system, or through the portal account. The g&f employee could see her app in the system & was able to manually input a different cc number. Since we technically have until midnight on the 25th to update cards, if the portals don't show you applied & nobody may be there to answer calls after hours, they need to have the portal accounts updated or you won't be able to change them without calling/speaking with them.

So, if this rule does get "approved", my guess is hundreds of wives & kids will inherit game cameras overnight to be placed at water sources to photograph birds & squirrels. If someone's dad, husband, or friend happens to see a large buck or bull on the images when searching for birds & squirrels, they'll just not look at those illegal photos that appear at water sources inadvertently & not think about them during their hunt in the coming days, weeks, or months. Yes, this will work & be totally enforceable.