krp

One day Grasshopper, If you are good, I might tell you a way to draw 10 elk tags in 12 years without trying a scam. Good luck with point guard. And friend, I know the draw as well as anyone... maybe I can show you how to draw 3 dec deer tags in 4 years... which I did up to 2 years ago before I changed my focus. Kent

Bob, how many times do we have to fight these same battles. I swear folks have to have it rubbed in their face to get it and some never do. Kent

That is where I figure you were going. Doesn't work that way. See the picture I posted above from the regs. Well if you want to be a stickler, which G&F isn't, Only a few years aren't descending. 2nd tuesday... 9th this year, 10th last year, 11th the year before, ect till it resets. Reality, you are in the draw if you license is good at application. Kent

I'm not going anywhere. I'm stating realities and fact. I can buy a license on feb 1st and apply for elk and the next year apply for elk on Jan 31 on the same license. I only have to buy a license again if drawn. Otherwise do it again the 3rd and 4th. Kent

Seriously... did you not know you can apply two years application on one license? Kent

My dad has a pioneer license, my wife hunts elk but not deer, no license fee, others only buy a license every 2 years, anyone that hasn't figured that out is ignorant... and I only have to pay 5 bucks the year the points are used. Kent

My dad at 85 still thinks I put in elk for him, but he can't seriously hunt anymore, he has a few points still and a pioneers license. I can buy BPs for him. Kent

13 bucks per BP and a license every few years. Kent

I gots lots of family that don't hunt but will be accumulating points for me. Kent

We'll call it the Nevada way... Kent

I might as well use my 4 deer points to help a buddy with 1 or 2 pull a 3 BP hunt, like mule deer in 23 or 22... the dec coues tag I want takes 5 and I'll get that hunt the next year. The person that would have drawn my tag won't even know they could have drawn and I'm sure will be just as happy with their 3rd, 4th or 5th basically leftovers choice. Kent

The original proposal was linked with the Portal and a paid premium membership. Premium members had fist choice of returned tags. Also there was no limit on how many times you could turn tags in. This new system will be advantageous for those that can figure it out. I'll hunt 3 dec coues tags in the next 5 years... if I want. Kent

I'm just telling you what's going to happen. soon my wife will draw a cow tag every year . You'll have to out bid USO, they have clients wanting to hunt unit 10 late rifle in their camp years sooner. You will draw 4B with 5 BPs. The howling's going to start when late bull hunts in 23, 10, 9 come up on the giveback list. Kent

Well, it's a done deal. Actually I can get her 2 tags in 2 years if I'm willing to take a 10 BP tag the second. Proxy applicants are the real danger for the future. And the amount of tags given back. Kent

My granddaughter is 4, in 6 years I'll have 18 and she'll have 1 HE = 19, average 10. The next year I'll have 19. Conspiracy... LOL, G&F shelved this a few years ago because some of us went to meetings and explained the possible implications. USO and other tag/app services are running the numbers. Of course giving back a quality tag that someone else wanted is no big deal, or how it is reissued. Kent

How much should I charge to proxy my 12 elk BPs on someone else's app? Or should I wait till my granddaughter is 10 and use my points to get her a 10 BP bull hunt? Either way I will give my tag back and use my points the next year. Kent

No comments huh... Kent

It's improbable but not impossible to draw your second choice if the first choice has better odds, the closer they are % wise the more likely. Say your first choice is a 40% draw and your second a 35%. You are in competition only with each group for the same hunt #. First choice enough applicants have a lower lottery # than you and it fills up, but the second hunt fewer have lower lottery # and you draw. You can't subtract the first from the second and have a negative... because you could actually draw. Swing for the fences on your first and settle for your second choice. Kent

Your second choice is only considered if you didn't draw your first. Kent

If your 1st choice has a 80% draw odds and the second 25% odds, even if you have a low enough lottery number to draw the 25%, you will have already drawn the 80% so second choice isn't considered. If you have two choices equal odds put your favorite as first. Kent

A quick look at the late rifle bull hunts. Starting with 2 BPs, hunter and loyalty. Unit 1 is the longest wait with 7 years, most take 4 to 5 years, even units 9 and 10 take 5 years. There's no secret math going to improve that. More tags or fewer applicants is the only way. Kent

Squaring or upping the bonus pass % will both have short term increased drawing for higher resident BP holders and then cause long term wait periods for subsequent years as BP holders bunch up at max points like NRs do now. Any movement closer to a preference system is in the wrong direction. This argument comes up often, last time I spent the effort with the numbers was 08 or 09 on MM and the thread was linked to this site. I'm not doing the numbers again as it 'hurts my head' as many said or they just dismiss because it's to hard to understand. Here's the short version of that argument... using unit 1 archery as the model, I said 20% pass bp levels was staying steady or dropping, I had been watching certain units for a few years. Others said I was crazy and point creep was making them rise and would increase rapidly. I put up numbers, someone else put up charts. Unit 1 took 12 bps to get in the 20% pass, 3A/3C took 11 bps. Now unit 1 takes 11 bps and 3A/3c takes 10... the opposing chart showed 16 by 5 years or so. Here are the factors... 20% bonus pass draw 80% general draw 1st and 2nd choice on the same draw 2nd choice being in the 20% pass All but the most premium hunts have more second choice applicants than first at the highest level, and most draw the tag on the second choice. NR domination of high BPs And now residents getting another 5% of tags in the 20% pass. Top 1000 bp holders has creeped up from 13+ to 14+, because of NRs being in a preference system for mid level to high level hunts. Top 4500 bp holders are 9+. Are we going to create a preference system upping wait times for all hunts including low level bull, cow and limited opportunity, where most of the 100,000+ applicants reside, just so a few folks wanting premium hunts can pull a tag earlier the next couple years. The only way to reduce the hail mary tags is remove the 2nd choice from 1st/2nd draw. This will make someone be realistic in their choice as bull tags will go in the first round. Which is the mathematical answer. But folks like their long shots. Kent

Look, the top BP holders are those with 1 and 2, last year there were about 24,000 of each. That means 48,000 chances for the 1s and 72,000 chances for the 2s. Compare that to the 9 bp group that had 900 for 9000 chances in the draw. Obviously some of those 2bp 72,000 chances are going to draw a low lottery number and get their first choice long shot tag. There's about 110,000 applicants with 0 to 8 BPs representing 330,000 draw chances. There's about 4500 applicants with 9 to 22 BPs representing 55,000 draw chances. You can start getting in the 20% pass of decent archery hunts with 9, if you have 10+ bps you already passed some guaranteed hunts. If you have 5 bps you have passed cow hunts guaranteed draw. If you are in the 80% general draw because your bp count isn't enough to get into a 20% pass, you are competing with every other BP group... and the 2 bp'ers dominate... so why is your bps more valid than anyone else's? 80% of tags in each hunt go to the general draw, the lower levels will get their share based on numbers. Life is math... Kent

Anyone who waits 20 years has been specific on the hunt they wanted, there's only a few hunts that take that long, it's not sad, it's being committed. Anyone serious can hunt elk every year here... of course hunter recruitment on early rifle bull hunts is deficit... Kent

Yeah, he's ok I guess. ... he's not 400... he's not a settle for 380... he's not even a last day 350... just an ok rag... Kent