krp

No comments huh... Kent

It's improbable but not impossible to draw your second choice if the first choice has better odds, the closer they are % wise the more likely. Say your first choice is a 40% draw and your second a 35%. You are in competition only with each group for the same hunt #. First choice enough applicants have a lower lottery # than you and it fills up, but the second hunt fewer have lower lottery # and you draw. You can't subtract the first from the second and have a negative... because you could actually draw. Swing for the fences on your first and settle for your second choice. Kent

Your second choice is only considered if you didn't draw your first. Kent

If your 1st choice has a 80% draw odds and the second 25% odds, even if you have a low enough lottery number to draw the 25%, you will have already drawn the 80% so second choice isn't considered. If you have two choices equal odds put your favorite as first. Kent

A quick look at the late rifle bull hunts. Starting with 2 BPs, hunter and loyalty. Unit 1 is the longest wait with 7 years, most take 4 to 5 years, even units 9 and 10 take 5 years. There's no secret math going to improve that. More tags or fewer applicants is the only way. Kent

Squaring or upping the bonus pass % will both have short term increased drawing for higher resident BP holders and then cause long term wait periods for subsequent years as BP holders bunch up at max points like NRs do now. Any movement closer to a preference system is in the wrong direction. This argument comes up often, last time I spent the effort with the numbers was 08 or 09 on MM and the thread was linked to this site. I'm not doing the numbers again as it 'hurts my head' as many said or they just dismiss because it's to hard to understand. Here's the short version of that argument... using unit 1 archery as the model, I said 20% pass bp levels was staying steady or dropping, I had been watching certain units for a few years. Others said I was crazy and point creep was making them rise and would increase rapidly. I put up numbers, someone else put up charts. Unit 1 took 12 bps to get in the 20% pass, 3A/3C took 11 bps. Now unit 1 takes 11 bps and 3A/3c takes 10... the opposing chart showed 16 by 5 years or so. Here are the factors... 20% bonus pass draw 80% general draw 1st and 2nd choice on the same draw 2nd choice being in the 20% pass All but the most premium hunts have more second choice applicants than first at the highest level, and most draw the tag on the second choice. NR domination of high BPs And now residents getting another 5% of tags in the 20% pass. Top 1000 bp holders has creeped up from 13+ to 14+, because of NRs being in a preference system for mid level to high level hunts. Top 4500 bp holders are 9+. Are we going to create a preference system upping wait times for all hunts including low level bull, cow and limited opportunity, where most of the 100,000+ applicants reside, just so a few folks wanting premium hunts can pull a tag earlier the next couple years. The only way to reduce the hail mary tags is remove the 2nd choice from 1st/2nd draw. This will make someone be realistic in their choice as bull tags will go in the first round. Which is the mathematical answer. But folks like their long shots. Kent

Look, the top BP holders are those with 1 and 2, last year there were about 24,000 of each. That means 48,000 chances for the 1s and 72,000 chances for the 2s. Compare that to the 9 bp group that had 900 for 9000 chances in the draw. Obviously some of those 2bp 72,000 chances are going to draw a low lottery number and get their first choice long shot tag. There's about 110,000 applicants with 0 to 8 BPs representing 330,000 draw chances. There's about 4500 applicants with 9 to 22 BPs representing 55,000 draw chances. You can start getting in the 20% pass of decent archery hunts with 9, if you have 10+ bps you already passed some guaranteed hunts. If you have 5 bps you have passed cow hunts guaranteed draw. If you are in the 80% general draw because your bp count isn't enough to get into a 20% pass, you are competing with every other BP group... and the 2 bp'ers dominate... so why is your bps more valid than anyone else's? 80% of tags in each hunt go to the general draw, the lower levels will get their share based on numbers. Life is math... Kent

Anyone who waits 20 years has been specific on the hunt they wanted, there's only a few hunts that take that long, it's not sad, it's being committed. Anyone serious can hunt elk every year here... of course hunter recruitment on early rifle bull hunts is deficit... Kent

Yeah, he's ok I guess. ... he's not 400... he's not a settle for 380... he's not even a last day 350... just an ok rag... Kent

Draw was done, then cards were hit friday morning, now they are processing the rejected cards and finally they will release the results. It seems to take a week plus from card hits to results. Those putting in paper have a long wait. Kent

http://vid289.photobucket.com/albums/ll237/kentpowellp/videos/MVI_0827_zpsscisk0w7.mp4 Here's an ok bull from 3C last year, couldn't convince my hunter there were elk in the hole because they weren't bugling. He stayed on top and I snuck down in. I could have killed this bull for 10 minutes while he went back and forth between sniffing cows. Scout country and cows, bulls won't be there till the rut. Kent

I've seen animals with hanging jaws... horrible. High neck if close or high shoulder otherwise. puts them on the ground taking the drama out of it. Kent

All cards were run immediately friday morning. Only thing going on now is the rejection list... which takes forever. Kent

If I didn't have enough points to guarantee in the 20% pass, I'd have applied for archery and took the tag if drawn. I'm 59 and this will be the last time I hold out for a rut hunt. I drew my first archery tag in '84 and have spent most years since up in the woods during the rut, helping others, scouting or pulling a tag. The rut seems to start on the 18th, pretty consistent. You can kill elk before sure enough, but the hot action hits then. This year the season runs from 9-22, leaves 5 days from the 18th, next year it's 15-28, that's 11 days. Again this is probably my last rut hunt and I want the experience as much as a kill. Kent

I did the same thing, I have enough points to draw 3C archery finally and this year is the 9th. Last year I helped a buddy who had the tag and it started on the 11th, was hot and a late rut. Next year it starts on the 15th, I've waited this long. Card was hit for one tag but probably my wife's cow. I put in early rifle. Kent

Ok, let me pm you tomorrow, wed/thur/sun are the best as I work early to late the other days, I have the granddaughter tonight and she wants the computer NOW! lol Kent

I have a wheeler engineering you can borrow if it's the right one. Kent

Stainless knives still available. I'll bump this with a story... My grandparents had 40 acres on Scottsdale rd, N Tempe, My family had a house on there when I was born, we moved to mesa when I was 7. Later while working and going to college I lived on that same property in a travel trailer. A couple years and I never finished college but had some great times with my grandparents. During that time I'd give my deer to my grandmother, she'd get out her knives and butcher them up. My dad was born in Thatcher, cotton farmers, never had electricity until his eighth grade when they moved to California for a year. Moved to Tempe when he started high school. They were just good ol arizona country folks. My dad will be 85 soon, couple years ago he had his last elk tag, shot his cow and we butchered it in his barn. He was talking about how my grandmother would take a deer and cut it into 'little meats'. every bit of it. then she'd cook it for breakfast instead of bacon making it last for many meals. She always made gravy with any meat she cooked. So it was eggs, venison, biscuits and gravy. During the years I was there she had venison, my older cousins would often stop by for leftover eggs and bacon and especially when she had deer meat, If I ate it all they would cry. We decided to take the loins and cut them into little meats, my grandmother had taught me how to make gravy, I had forgot how great a breakfast it could be. Had some great breakfasts in remembrance of 'Moms' my grandmother. Kent

Used, as in actually used for butchering, no guessing whether these can do the job or not. Growing up in Mesa during the 60s and 70s, my brother and I'd get calves from the dairy, bottle feed, pasture, then sell at the old auction on baseline, butchering one to put in the freezer for the family. I remember we used old carbon steel knives and found some in my dad's barn some years ago. Switched from the chinese crappy knives I'd been using on my deer and elk, had forgot how great those old knives were. Since then I've been accumulating old well used quality knives both carbon and stainless... have way too many. If you want a dedicated butcher set for you game animals and like old stuff your grandparents used, here you go. First set is stainless, some butcher named Fred etched his name and mark in a few, and the blades has been profiled by a professional sharpener to make it easy to keep sharp. They have steeling marks in the handles from constantly swiping on a steel while cutting. Ready to use. Dexter S32G12R stainless 12" blade R H Forschner 174-10 10" blade Henckels germany utility Dexter chef 10" Chicago Cutlery 62S 6" boning that I added as I like them, 70s era usa made. 100.00 plus shipping if applicable. I'm in Mesa. Kent

The 5 carbon knives are spf. Kent

Let me offer these in smaller 3 knife sets... either set for 60.00

I bought this around 07, I used it in the Grand Canyon and wilderness Coues hunts, less than 10 times total. Haven't used it in 5 years. It's in excellent shape, comes with 9 stakes, a pole I've never used or packed, an optional trekking pole extension if you want to use that as a center pole, again I've never used or packed. And some para cord I added for using the top loop to tie up using a tree limb, which is how I always used it. Kept the weight to around 2.5 lbs. Specs... Capacity: three people – spacious for two with gear – lots of head room Area: 58.5 sq ft (max length, 8 ft 10 in, max width, 7 ft 8 in, max height 5 ft 6 in) Body weight: 28 oz Center pole weight: 11 oz Stake weight: 5 oz (9 GoLite aluminum stakes) Body material: SilLite™ (1.76 oz/sq yd silnylon) Stuffed size: 16 x 6 in This is too good a piece of equipment to languish in my gear stash. 225.00 shipped. If you pick up local I'll throw in a Cabelas pack frame that's been collecting dust in the garage, nothing special but usable. I have this posted on another site also, first 'I take it' is it. Kent

With tags, bought these a few years ago planning to possibly work in ND oil patch, but never did. they are too insulated for me here. Don't have the box, put them on my boot shelf and the box got used for something else by the wife I guess. 225.00 Kent

Sold pending funds, thanks for all the interest. Kent

I had forgotten but these have a removable wool footbed. Kent