krp

I have to leave till friday, just a few things to think about. KRP's group 1 gets 70 tags group 2 gets 30 tags Squared b.p.'s group 1 gets 45 tags group 2 gets 55 tags You need to add the 25 tags that had already went to the max pool. krp's 70 tags to 55 tags, without squaring, the lower group has a lot more bp power than those left in the top group. sdr's 45 tags to 80 tags Add the 125 tags with the 500 draw krp's 350 tags to 275 tags sdr's 225 tags to 400 tags Those at the top are the only ones that want this type of weighted system. Ask the people in the lower and middle bp pools, who actually are the overwelming majority in numbers and BP power, if they care about these higher hunts and if they are willing to delute their hard earned BPs and give up a big portion of their tags, for someone that could have already had a tag, but are holding out. Hold outs could have already had some tags and like the 13,11,10,9,8 BPers in the 3015 hunt I listed, can at anytime jump ship and get one. Those people didn't put in for that hunt before or they would have been in the max pool the years before. They also are not having to wait all that long now and there's no way to lower the wait time anyway, but it sure can be messed up. Just cause they are holding out doesn't mean I have to accomadate them beyond their natural advantage in any way. Kent

First, my numbers aren't an example, that's really what happened. Second, what happened to the 50% deal? Third, you have no idea how many of those in the top pool drew their 2nd choice, quite a few because the lower hunts show that more than half the tags in the top half pools go to 2nd choicers. You have to add those in with the ones that will not be a contender next year for max pool. Also many were in the max pool of their second choice and never got back to the general pool in their 1st choice to contend for that tag. How many more in the top half would have recieved a 1st choice if they hadn't picked up their 2nd before? You're assuming a first choice only draw. I've already said that may be a good option, even without squaring. Hunt # 3015 has (500) tags. 0 to 13 is the BP range, 1375 first choice, 2269 second choice, 3644 total choices. 20% max pool is at 7 bps with 35 tags left to drop to the general. I don't have time for more than a few numbers, you can look up the rest and work them yourself. BPs 1st&2nd 0----413 1----756 2----894 3----610 4----425 5----256 6----155 7-----88 8-----35 9------5 10-----4 11-----2 13-----1 Look how nice and streamlined the BPs are, light at the top, those up there get their tags, the ones in the middle and bottom get their fair share also keeping the sides trimed. Every year the same thing. Takeing an unnatural amount from the top will cause the max pool to be one BP group in a short time and because those behind aren't having many tags, they will bunch up also. The more the top groups bunch and continue to square their points the less tags for those under until it's a PP system and totally clogged. If I only use the first choice, man, I can move 1375 apps through fast without squaring. Of course there will be more than that if it was 1st only draw, alot of those second choicers would back off the higher draws and come back to this one as 1st. Hey, backing off the higher draws, would that help those waiting for a premium tag? Even 9ER is nice and streamlined and holding at 18 BPs max, not bad. Ok, you squared 9ER, that's 150,000 numbers for just that hunt the computer has to give out, square all the hunts and you get a 15,000,000? more? I don't like my odds, even with 1500 numbers against that many. You're selling more lottery tickets in the lottery I'm trying to win, even with 1500 tickets. I still don't know why just because someone wants to hold out, their BPs should be worth more squared per, than mine per. I had some other snappy things to say but I forgot. The main question you have for me is not if I think you will be able to in the long run get everyone a elk tag faster on average, but if I think those that have more BPs should have a right to more then their natural share of tags no matter what happens to everyone else. Your answer is yes and mine is no. I give you credit for working out a decent responce. Kent

This may be boring as heck but I like this stuff. It'll take a few posts to go through just a couple of hunt choices but maybe we can make a guesstimation and some general observations. If there's not an interested responce I'll just drop it. The #1 hunt in Az, unit 9 early rifle, #3004, year 2008 ,25 tags For some reason there is no way to just copy the info and paste it here, makes it hard but I'll hand type the important stuff. BP 1st 2nd (tags drew) 0- 338- 80---- 0 1- 462- 145---- 2 2- 555- 139---- 0 3- 488- 143---- 3 4- 341- 122---- 0 lower bp groups 21,074 choices 5- 324- 101---- 2 6- 296- 89---- 6 7- 237- 67---- 0 8- 202- 94---- 3 9- 162- 56---- 0 ---------------------- 10- 144- 54---- 1 11- 128- 32---- 1 12- 86- 26---- 0 13- 80- 24---- 0 upper bp groups 9,422 choices 14- 48- 24---- 0 15- 34- 16---- 2 16- 21- 5---- 0 ----------------------- 17- 6- 1---- 2 18- 3- 0---- 3 20% pass First observation is that the system is working as designed. 5 tags went in the max pool and left 4 of the 17 bpers dropping into the general draw. I'm leaving out the 2nd choicer because they got a tag on whatever 1st choice they put in for, more to come on the 2nd choicers putting in for the most difficult unit to draw. If the same 17ers only put in for unit 9 this year, next year there will be 4 18 bpers, probably at least one was drawn for a 2nd choice tag. No creep with 20%. Since this is really for 2008, we'll find out this year how many 16,15,14 bpers drew 2nd choice and how much creep there are in those groups. I split them in upper and lower because the upper groups are usually in it for the long haul, especially in the middle and lower hunts, maybe not so much here. A 13 bper would still be a Hail Mary thrower. The upper group should have gotten 6 tags but only 4, Oh well, just the way it turned out. the lower group had more power and reaped more tags as it should. Now some funny stuff, all second choices were a waste, if they had a low enough alloted # to get a 9ER tag they would have easily drawn their 1st choice before it came to their 2nd. The 2 thru 11 groups all are pretty equal in there choice power 2000 to 2600 range for each one. Very few of these apps are in it for the long haul and are pretty much taking a free shot with their first choice, as are most with 0 to 14. If you force them to decide which hunt they really want on their first choice, it'll probably be a much easier to draw tag and get them out of the way. You'll only compete against those that are in it like yourself. This even goes to cow tags and they might like to keep the 'I really only want a bull tag but will take your cow tag if I'm not that lucky' guy out. There's Hail Mary throwers in every hunt. I'm still working on the 1st choice deal and I'm not seeing that much improvement because of some of the same variables as the other suggestions. Lots to look at. Kent

DubTee, you are the first one from two sites and hundreds of posts to look at the numbers and add in past knowledge to see a trend and come up with a reasonable reponce to me. Thanks. There are plenty of people that know the numbers, just none of the ones that have been hammering me. Just a quick change on your numbers, doesn't change your well thought out ideas. 2 bpers have 3x3530=10,590 choices 10 bpers have 11x678=7,458 choices Just some quick thoughts. The early rifle tags are almost another animal in themselves, much more like sheep tags. I know this is what most of the guys are really wanting to change without coming right out and saying it. 22,780 applicants for 230 tags in the early rifle, not even counting the early muzzy. The 2 bpers sure made a killing. 100 of the 230 tags went to the top half BP pools, the bottom half BP pools had more choices after the 20% pass. Unit 9 by itself had 5173 apps for 25 tags, if everyone was serious that would take 200 years to get a tag even if it was a lifetime tag. The thing that effects the draw odds the most in these hunts is the 'Hail Mary' throwers on the first choice. If there wasn't a free shot at these hunts at least 3/4ths of the apps wouldn't be there. Even in these hunts only 5 had more 1st choice apps in the top BP pool half, the other 4 hunts had more that thought it wasn't good enough to be 1st choice. Trying to change the entire system with a 50% or squaring BPs for just a few tags is what we're talking about here and just like the sheep tags what can you really do. Moving closer to a preferance system may be the fairest thing in the case of these tags, but not for the other 20,000 tags out there. It's funny that every state with some kind of pts are always having their hunters gripe about the system and pointing to other states as having a better one. Az is considered by many in other states as having the best system and we look at others and think the same of them. NM has it right and didn't get in this mess. Well, either we take these tags out of the system and put them in their own draw and then make a PP system or we keep dealing with them the way it is. Or we go to a 1st choice only first draw and cut out the 'Hail Mary' throwing. Or we just give everyone a tag for one year and then can get rid of BPs and start over. Kent

RoughCut, I'm also intriged a little at taking 12,000 bull hunters out of the draw the first year and then 24,000 there after. The bonus point odds don't allow most to get another tag within the next few years anyway, cases like your BIL are there but not in great numbers. I also remember when they had the wait period when I was young, it really sucked and didn't help anything back then. Todays different and I'm on the fence like you, not really sure I like it because of the past. If someone comes up with a substandual reason then maybe I could decide. Kent

redneck, beautifully said, I lost my mother 2 yrs ago to bone cancer, LOVE YOU MOM! Kent

I'm just saying that is a very extreme case and I can see how you are annoyed. That may be the most extreme case I've heard about and annoys me on a certain level also. Human nature. There are people that piggyback off their family members bps. Drawing those many tags solo means he is just beating everyone in the overall number lottery. The lowest number everyone is alloted in the lottery before going to the actual draw. Once the numbers are given, the draw goes through those numbers in order. He's pulling some very low numbers consistantly to be getting tags. If all bull hunts are premium, (the only way to keep him from getting a bull tag with that low number) then allowing him in the cow hunts will only allow him to take tags from those hunters with his low number. Many hunters consider cow hunts premium and already are competeing 4 to 1 for tags, they don't want 12,000 bull hunters the first year, and 24,000 the second, forced into their territory, competeing for tags. Has to be a system that is fair for everyone. Kent

Bill,I absolutely agree with your ideas that I've heard you express before. I'm not bringing it up though. Kent

RoughCut, your example of your BIL is on the extreem end but annoying non-the-less. He is either the luckiest guy in the world putting in by himself, or has a network of others he puts in with on different years that up his bp odds. If he is riding luck then he is just beating everyone in the number allotment phase. Which of his hunts he drew would be considered premium, if not 6B and 11M then he would have still been in the draw and still beating everyone. I don't know if the 22% NR rule would apply to 6B and 11M. All bull hunts including nov. archery? just rut hunts and rifle hunts? just rut hunts? Also, will they be able to apply for nonpremium tags during their wait period. Just some things to think on before moving forward, not trying to be contrary. Kent

Emotionaly, yes, I don't want to hear that guy bragging again. Realistically, where's the cutoff at premium, most rifle cow hunts are a 4 to 1 ratio, app to tag. Is that premium. Set some parameters this time. Kent

Very nice! Kent

sdr, look at your CA example, I like it. That's exactly the direction we would be moving. CA: has a system in place that is almost a preference point system where 90% of the tags are issued to the max point pool. they have no other draw structures to accommodate the quantity type hunters that prefer to hunt as much as often regardless of quality. if you apply in CA and you don’t have A LOT of pref. points already you may very well be out of the loop with nearly impossible odds. CA does not have the supply and has huge demand. Again; AZ: has a system in place that is almost a preference point system where 50% of the tags are issued to the max point pool. they have no other draw structures to accommodate the quantity type hunters that prefer to hunt as much as often regardless of quality. if you apply in AZ and you don’t have A LOT of pref. points already you may very well be out of the loop with nearly impossible odds. AZ does not have the supply and has huge demand. After a few years it will need to be moved to 75%, then 90% like CA's. It's already happening with wanting to move from 20% to 50%, I remember when it was 20% will fix it over 10%. Colorado's system works there because you can kill 2 elk a year without drawing your coveted tag. Their system has gotten so clogged when it comes to the premium hunts that they're looking for answers themselves. In our state there would effectively only be a first choice on all hunts and a definate wait period on even cow hunts. There are on most cow hunts, 4 apps per 1 tag, every tag in AZ is high demand in one way or another. Squaring pts is making someones bps more valuable than someone elses, my dollars spent on licenses and tags, amount to more than someone that is waiting it out for a tag. My BP should have at least the same value per BP as that person. If I have 2 and he has 10, he has an advantage. I'm not sold on me having 4 and him having 100, just because he decided to wait for a hard to get tag, what's so special about that. I'm just trying to make you guys think and come up with some facts and data to support your proposal. I guess when you walk into G&F you don't need to be prepared with detailed examples/facts of how the change will be benefical to the majority of hunters. They'll just say, hey, sounds good, 50% over 20%, why didn't we think of that. Somehow I'm supposed to feel ashamed that I have researched the draw odds over the years to try and improve my families chances. I'm tired of having the G&F change processes because the anti's whining over here with nothing but emotion, some of our own hunters crying because it will help their tiny group but hurt the majority without any real data, the Commission changing our traditional archery hunt structure without real data or the Commission changing hunt structures with weighted surveys and for monetary reasons, not wildlife data reasons. I'm nobody, never got involved with these political issues beyond complaining around the campfire. Well that was my mistake and I'm not going to sit around anymore. You want to make it harder for my wife to get a cow tag, you better have more of an explanation than, it just has to be better. Because. At least show how the changed % will effect the variables in a positive direction/trend, time and efficently wise to warrant a change, even if it's just a logical guess. But you have to have some understanding of the current direction/trend to show the difference. Like a graph with the current trend in red and your improved version in blue, all I see from you guys is a one line graph. Same old stuff we deal with all the time with G&F changes. The only comparasion example I've heard is, Joe got 2 tags in a few years apart and Jim is still waiting for his. So the system needs to be changed to 50%. Well, Joe won out in the initial number allocation before the draw, he ended up with one of the 20 tags out of the 650 2 bper's recieved because of their bp power. He was getting a tag any way because his number was lower than Jim's even with a 50%. You'll need to change the inital allocation system. I think we're the only two willing to talk about this anymore and I'm tiring of it myself. It's a dead issue not going anywhere. Kent

I also just tried the Alaska guide that Jaret makes this weekend. I wanted to see how it did with my pack on at the same time. I stuffed it with more than I would usually take just to see. Binos, GPS, cell phone, keys, headlamp, extra batteries and the camera that took the pic. No problems with rubbing with the pack on, that was #1. Loved having eveything right in front of me and not having to hold on to my binos with my left hand to keep them from beating me to death. It was really hot at 88 deg when we left on the trail, the pouch was warm where it pressed on the front but not nearly as bad as I thought and wasn't uncomfortable. I have some more things to try with it, like crawling but should work better than dragging my binos. Kent

"we all know that the draw/life is not static thus we have to assume the same variables will apply to both static scenarios. do you have an explanatioin? i am curious." This is what I've discussed over on the other site and now here. That's an assumtion that's wrong and the root of the whole deal. You change the structure, you change the variables. I'm sorry if my answers are both simple and complicated at the same time. Everything I wrote was an answer to your statement about static and variables. I listed only a small part of the variables involved. At least if you would look at the data and then have a different perspective of the variables than myself, we could have a conversation. The answer to your Question is, any NR without max points that puts in for a hunt that fills the NR up to 10% in the max pool. I'd like to see it go back to 10%. If you went through the data, you would see that pretty much after the 20% pass, BP power takes over. The lower BP groups have many more BPs than the upper groups left. The upper groups get a few more tags than they probably should, but the lower groups seem to be more in chaos with their picks and knock themselves out. Helping this year and the next year. Any rise in % pass increases the value of the higher BP holders BPs and decreases the value of the lower BP holders BPs. Also restricts the variables (amount of tags) that keep things moving in the lower and middle groups. If you feel that strongly just take it to G&F and get it passed, I'm sure you have all the support you need right. Why worry about my lonely voice in the wilderness. Kent

So you're saying the same thing I've given senarios for and what I've reserched for years in the draw process, cause and effect + chaos have more of a result in moving the process along than keeping everyone in a controled line. The more people are controled into staying in the same line the longer it will take to get through. Oh, you'll have a better idea when you will be guaranteed to finally get through. It definately could be longer than if there are more avenues for some to move out of line, can't be sooner. Until some of you guys actually go through and research the yearly BP/draw odds/BP groups/pass % results that come out and watch what trends are happening year to year, you're guessing at what can actually help. Or if there even needs to be help. If you can answer some of these things, then we can actually have a debate, I'm done with "You're wrong cause I think so". If you at least can back up your ideas with what you see as a trend in the system and the numbers that are there, then I can respect that and am willing to listen. How many elk hunts actually had more first choice applicants than second in the top half of the bonus point pools, example if 20 was the top then 11 and up would be the top 1/2. Why do some cow hunts have applicants with up to or more than 10 BPs apply, how likely is someone with 5 or 6 BPs putting in for cow hunts second choice. If a majority of people are drawing their second choice, where's their loyalty to their first choice. Over 200,000 people actually have BPs, only 80,000 apply, how controllable is that. If you go to a 100% max pool will anyone draw a tag on their second choice, even a cow tag. How many cow hunts are less than a 4 to 1 app to tag ratio. Who want's cow hunts be become PP hunts in Az. How much does the BP power of the lower half BP groups have and can that be overcome with a 50% pass. Will you need to look at changing the lottery numbers allocation to unit specific instead of spiecies specific. Just of a few of the many things to discuss, if you know what you're talking about. Is the G&F so stupid they haven't run numbers and looked at other states systems to see if they could improve the system. I am critical of the Commission at times, but there are a lot of smart people that work for G&F that know more than you or I. I don't have to prove anything, you're the one's trying to push change, just asking you to supply a better reason than 'you think your way is the best way'. If you can show where a person will get a tag faster on average than the 'true current trend' (if you have been following the last few years you would know) I will back you. Otherwise I'm going to fight for the NR that will be screwd and 95% of the resident hunters that will be also. Kent

sdr, headed out the house to Backpack scout with the wife and daughter, look at it when I get home. Just a thought, numbers don't mean squat for movement, direction does. If every one has to move in the same direction it takes forever to get there if your behind at all. In a mathimatical since, when the light turns green, everyone should be able to hit the gas at the same time and go. Reality is different, the only way to get everyone going is shoot them in as many different directions as possible. That's reality. Choke them with preferance % and traffic slows down. Again, show me why unit 1 archery is at only 11 bps in a downward trend, not 16 or so, that's reality. Kent

sdr, why not a 100% preference, if 50% is faster than 20%, then 100% has to be faster than 50%. there really isn't any way to dispute the facts about mathmatical equations. from, waiting to be learn'd.

Why stop at 50%, just go straight to 100% and for sure wait 24 bps instead of the 11 bps now. 100 is better than 50 any day, has to be. Or half the people drop out and try for easier cow hunts that they now only have to wait for 3 or 4 years to get. Hey, then it's only 12 bps to get a tag, that has to be better than the whatever it is now. I haven't looked at any numbers, someone said it was 11 bps but they are ignorant, no way. That would mean the system works about the same no matter what the % and half the people somehow move around the system now, no way. 50% just has to be better, it has to, it's, 30% better. If Bubbas or whoever can get me a tag with 10 bps starting now, they're my hero. 15s the best he could come up with at 50% max pool. No thanks, I'll take my chances with the way it is now. From, unfortunate to be so uneducated.

I buy whatever's on sale and like Coues 'n' Sheep, material is #1. nylon and wool, no cotton. If my pants match my shirt or jacket it would be by accident my camo pattern is always in a state of change, depends on the bloodstains. Kent

Dubtee, I'm not saying I'm right with my suggestion, just that if there needs to be change then actually change it. Forget the math, the more I tried to show wheither or not a change in % pass will make much of a difference, the more I realised 3700 apps - 150 tags still = 3550, no matter the pass%. That was a brainstorming thread that evolved, at least for me. I belong to the 'Ugly tag crew', maybe the only good thing that came out of that thread, and have no tags in this fight, myself. As I was going over the numbers again and again, I noticed some trends, no way anyone can figure a 100% path. Why had the top pool in unit 1 dropped to 11 bps to get in? Shouldn't it be like 20. Why are there more 2nd choice picks in the top half BP pools in all but 2 or 3 premium hunts. The 2nd choice picks are drawing more tags in the max pool than first choice. The lower half bp pools control a powerful advantage in bps and yet are considered interlopers if they happen to draw a tag. Why is someone that has been putting in for tags for 15 yrs without drawing when they know the odds, suddenly have a guaranteed option over me that have been hunting and paying fees for 40 yrs wheither I've drawn or not shouldn't matter, I've spent more money. (this last was said tounge-in-cheek, and is the unreasonable argument for their unreasonableness). Maybe the more a system shakes and jumps, not locked in, the easier it moves downhill, throwing off the waste and gaining speed. Again how come unit 1 is only at 11 bps max pool. Maybe we need to go back to the 10% to get it shaking more and help our NR applicants at the same time. 50% pass will make every hunt a PP system for NRs, not just the premium hunts. 50% pass will not lower the max point bp pool and only creep it upwards. I don't kmow why the 20% pass is not skyrocketing upwards, I can only look at the trend it's moving on now. The 1st choice only draw will take out half of the choices in the first draw. 80,000 instead of 160,000. Take out the 2nd choice and Hail Mary throwers out of each hunt choice and cut those numbers in half on average. Getting 1900 through a proccess is much easier than getting 3700 through. You will only compete with those that are serious for the tag as you are, premium or cow tag, if you're serious about it you don't want everyone and their grandma in with you. If you want to jump in with only a few bps for a premium hunt, more power to ya, at least you're risking something. 1st choice only would have knocked the max pool to 9 in unit 1 instead of 11. Don't know how long that trend will last but should cont for awhile. Should help those that want to draw a cow tag on their first choice. I'm not saying I have the answers but have looked at it harder than most and at least tried to answer the question about a 50% pass. I don't even care if they change anything, except for the NRs problem and tweeking the youth tags a little. I'll get my 'Ugly tags' consistantly and work hard to make them successful. Kent

There were 81,213 apps for 25,446 elk tags. 2008 That's 162,426 choices in the draw if every one put a 1st and 2nd choice down. So roughly 25,000 for 160,000. In unit 1 archery bull more than 1/2 the applicants (713) in the top half BP groups, 7 thru 14 BPs, chose this hunt as their 2nd choice. 16 of 30 20% pass pool tags went to 2nd choicers. The 13 and 14 BPers were ship jumpers or they would have drawn in 2007 in the max pool. The top half BP groups recieved 73 of 150 tags with about 6600 chances in the draw The bottom half BP groups, 0 thru 6 BPs, recieved 77 of 150 tags with over 17,000 chances in the draw. 6600 choices against 17,000+ and still get about 1/2 the tags. That's somehow not enough? Especially to such diehard, wait so long, oopps I got my 2nd choicers/ ship jumpers. The more open and flexable the system the more opportunity for others to be knocked out of your BP pool and up your odds down the road by their own choice. The second choicers that drew a unit 1 20% pass tag were close to being a big player in whatever unit they put for 1st choice, now they're not anymore uping the odds of those dedicated to that hunt. This works down even for those that only put in for nonpopular bull and cow hunts. If you up the pass % you stiffen up the system and cause each BP group to take 2 or 3 years to pass before another will move into the max pool. Less tags for people to fall by the wayside including cow tags with this system. To understand a little how fluctuating people are coming in and out of the system is consider this. There are 206,638 indidviduals with BPs for elk as of 2008 and only 81,000 applied, where are all the rest, they had to have applied in the last 3 yrs or would have lost their BPs. http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/pdfs/BonusP...all2008Draw.pdf I added them up, maybe I'm missing something. If you want true change you will need to somehow reduce the number of choices per hunt choice. 3700 1st and 2nd choices in unit 1 and 150 tags. How many are Hail Mary throwers and then choose a easy to draw hunt second, how many put their kids and wives and grandparents with 2 bps in just in case. How many put it down as 2nd choice with a descent number of BPs effecting both 1st and 2nd choice hunter pools. What if you cut out the 2nd choice in the first round? 3700 goes down to 2000 maybe lower, only those that are serious about your hunt will compete with you, if they want to put in with 2 bps at least they are serious and more power to them. Since most bull tags would be gone in the first round, no one is going to take to much of a chance if they really would rather have a late rifle tag instead of waiting 9 years for your tag. Those wanting just cow tags don't have the 'Oh I'll settle for your cow hunt 2nd choicer either'. I know plenty of people that only put in cow hunts. All you lose is your Hail Mary shot but so does everyone else. 2nd choice would be it's own round and would use up your bps, if you only want a decent or great bull tag then just pass on this. 3,4,5 choice would be for some LO tags or whatever's left, if drawn no bps taken, you could put a 1st no 2nd and a 3,4,5 to keep your bps. No need to designate premium tags, they will automatically only appeal to those willing to wait it out. If you want a waiting period (I don't) use BPs. You need 3 bps to be drawn for anything but a BP, hunter safety bp means 2 yrs, HS and L bps mean 1 year wait. When Az first went to a draw they had a 1st and 2nd choice to even the field, then they added the BPs to even the field, now that Bps have matured the 2 processes seem to be fighting against each other. One needs to go. Kent

Absolutely. 100%, what IT's about. Add your own IT. My IT is family time. Thanks Lance. Kent

I forgot to say, HEY, leave some for the kids, fish hog. Kent

Nice, looks close to where I live. Kent

If you go with the heavier arrow you will need to do something to adjust for spine. There is a certain flex your arrow needs to come out straightest. Up the poundage to get more flex. Most bows are close to the top of adjustment and don't have alot of room to move here. Add length to the arrow so it will flex correctly. We are used to shooting arrows that are a certain length so this may feel akward. Add weight to the broadhead. The shaft will flex more as it pushes against more resistance to initally get momentum started. I say go with the heavier head and then fine tune your poundage to match the arrow and head combo. Kent