krp

Doug, only the ones right after the flood, it really dug out a deep channel and made some new short falls just past Havasu falls. I haven't been able to find out anything more, just like the tribe to not let out too much info. Kent

bobbyo, if you can get your carpool buddies out of the pickup bed and away from the beer coolers, I'm more than happy to show them some deer. But you'll probably have as much luck as I have getting any takers, lots of interest, just no takers. Kent

Everyone is responsable for picking and training their own pack team, can't help with that. Just my thoughts on 22 and units in the same circumstance. I hated seeing 22 and others move from the Dec WT system but it did. Without mandatory reporting G&F can makeup any numbers they want to add or subtract tags and remove archery hunts. They change the hunt structure every year, this has to be planned so a guy can't get a fix on what's really happening. 2005 Dec hunt 2006 Dec hunt, Nov hunt same time as Mulie hunt and same amount of days, 10. Family members/friends can put in 1st/2nd choice WT/mulie and still camp/hunt the same timeframe. Oh well, at least that's something. 2007 same as 2006 2008 Nov WT is shortened to 7 days, up the tags, only have 25 Dec rifle tags, mulie stays the same, 10 days. Delete the Dec archery hunt. 2009 Nov WT is now at an earlier time frame than mulie and they are both only 7 days. It doesn't matter how many tags are in an area, there are only so many deer that are close enough to the road systems to be available to 95% of the hunters. Adding 200 tags for instance will only add 5% more experienced hunters that will make a difference, 10 hunters, if that. This is what G&F has figured out. Overcrowding a unit, making major changes every year, shortening the hunt to one weekend only, has almost no effect on deer numbers, quality of hunt has no bearing on their decisions. There isn't an army of experienced, hardcore, kill a deer if they walk out the door, hunters out there wanting one of these tags. All they are adding is the least experienced of hunters. Most of these hunters will hunt from just a morning only to most of the first weekend. Not working on their skills, driving their quad, sitting in camp drinking beer most the day, complaining about the lack of deer seen as they drove around and maybe walked a 100 yds to look into a canyon for 1 min. Some will get back in a 1/2 mile or so and spend all morning in an area and up their success level. A smaller group will want to take it even farther and really apply themselves totally to the best of their ability. We can't do anything about the first group. The next two are why we should be on these sites, to help them. If someone shows interest in applying themselves, I'm willing to help in anyway including taking them to some of my spots to get them started in the right direction. Not everyone has a father, grandfather, uncle or friend that can help or share with their desire to hunt. Most of us here are 5%ers. When we offer a hand, we are trying to keep that 5% at that level and not let it drop to 3,2,1%. It would be nice to get it to 20%. Kent

There's plenty of secret spots and deer left, you just gotta do this. Get outa the parking lot. Even the wife and daughter don't mind putting a pack on. Maybe someday I'll actually see someone else back in here, well I did see a cowhand ride his horse through once. Unit 22 Kent

I almost always put a different unit as 1st choice for coues, still alot of units I want to hunt. For 2nd and down I put the old standbys. Will do it again this year and for my 2nd choice also, always seem to find new to me areas that are promising while doing other things. Elk, that's different, I'm much more loyal. Kent

Str8shot, yea, some of those old guys down there know what they're doing. I can just see Keith down there holding court. You know we fish alot and have had some tremendous catches. This trip was the best pure fishing I've ever been on. We released around 50 fish and the big ones like the groupers we had to tie mono to the fish and hook it on an anchor to get them deep enough so they would decompress and break off. The 100 lber we had to put 2 anchors on, I'm talking 25 lb anchors with a 10 ft heavy chain. We targeted 3 on purpose and I landed the mauler also, we quit going after the big ones because it was too hard on them and on us trying to revive them. We only fished 4 hrs max a day. There's no place to launch a boat or dock it. You have to rely on the raised launcher to back you out in the surf and pick you up every time. There's only a few people that have boats needing launching and none were down there except us. The evening we arrived we stop at the launchers house and he's been gone 3 days, his brother will launch us in the early morning. Of course Mexican early time and our time is different. Drive around town, finally find him at 9:30. "$20 dlls or equevalen Mexican Money" Classic Of course when we get back everyone's gone and no one to pick us up. Keith and I swim in and drive around town again and find the original launcher that just returned with a tanker of water. Always an adventure. This place has no power, running water, phone, a tiny market that the owner drives 60 miles of bad dirt road one way every couple days in his van to get stuff. The houses are shacks of plywood, plalets, tin, whatever. The people are themselves clean in their person and cloths, extreemly pleasant, seemingly happy. They have a small school for the few children. The store owner has solar power and satalite TV after dark out in the dirt patio. Usually a decent crowd watching TV every night. Their life is simple, I don't feel sorry for them, I envy them. Kent

Gino, I know what we'll do. There's enough abandoned pongas littered down there that everyone can go. We just need some outboards and some fiberglass repair kits for a few of them. It'll be an adventure. Kent

Ken, you're right, those aren't crappie. The crappie bite should pick back up soon and I'll let you know when it does. The Mexican shrimpers and trawlers haven't been dragging the bottom much the last few years and look what happens. Fish, the reefs aren't continually stripped and destroyed, imagine that. Oh, I forgot, it was global warming. Kent

Kelney, I've promised not to say. I will say this, it's almost impossible to pull a boat into this area. You need to drive the boat over 100 miles on the water and then still get stuck with the truck pulling just the trailer. There are only a handful of Americans and no charters at all, might get someone to take you out in a ponga. You need to be setup long term here. Kent

Yellowtail on the barby dipped in butter, mmmm. We fished 2 days. The first we were dropping jigs and just hammering the white sea bass, yellowtail, leopard grouper(Chardenair), small 30 lb gulf groupers, red snappers. Only keeping those that were hooked bad or like the 10 lb red snapper with all the chew marks on it, those that were mauled by something bigger as we tried to reel them in. Day 2 we bring the big pole and stop to catch some sandbass for bait. Start with jigs again and slaying the fish again. After a few mauling we get out the big tackle and sandies. Caught 3 in a row, one for each of us. Less than 5 min on each drop before we hooked a fish. Kept 2 for the townfolks. Groupers, 70 to 80 lbers. Went back to jigs and I had a decent fish on and then was mauled again about 40 ft off the bottom. I locked in and grabbed my reel so drag wouldn't go out, if he got to the rocks he would get my fish. After 10 mins and he hadn't let go I knew somehow the jig had caught the bigger fish, that's the 100 plus fish I reeled in on the second vid. Catch a fish and then catch the one that eats it. Kent

The house and boat are my friend's, no such thing as a charter here. Kent

I have to leave till friday, just a few things to think about. KRP's group 1 gets 70 tags group 2 gets 30 tags Squared b.p.'s group 1 gets 45 tags group 2 gets 55 tags You need to add the 25 tags that had already went to the max pool. krp's 70 tags to 55 tags, without squaring, the lower group has a lot more bp power than those left in the top group. sdr's 45 tags to 80 tags Add the 125 tags with the 500 draw krp's 350 tags to 275 tags sdr's 225 tags to 400 tags Those at the top are the only ones that want this type of weighted system. Ask the people in the lower and middle bp pools, who actually are the overwelming majority in numbers and BP power, if they care about these higher hunts and if they are willing to delute their hard earned BPs and give up a big portion of their tags, for someone that could have already had a tag, but are holding out. Hold outs could have already had some tags and like the 13,11,10,9,8 BPers in the 3015 hunt I listed, can at anytime jump ship and get one. Those people didn't put in for that hunt before or they would have been in the max pool the years before. They also are not having to wait all that long now and there's no way to lower the wait time anyway, but it sure can be messed up. Just cause they are holding out doesn't mean I have to accomadate them beyond their natural advantage in any way. Kent

First, my numbers aren't an example, that's really what happened. Second, what happened to the 50% deal? Third, you have no idea how many of those in the top pool drew their 2nd choice, quite a few because the lower hunts show that more than half the tags in the top half pools go to 2nd choicers. You have to add those in with the ones that will not be a contender next year for max pool. Also many were in the max pool of their second choice and never got back to the general pool in their 1st choice to contend for that tag. How many more in the top half would have recieved a 1st choice if they hadn't picked up their 2nd before? You're assuming a first choice only draw. I've already said that may be a good option, even without squaring. Hunt # 3015 has (500) tags. 0 to 13 is the BP range, 1375 first choice, 2269 second choice, 3644 total choices. 20% max pool is at 7 bps with 35 tags left to drop to the general. I don't have time for more than a few numbers, you can look up the rest and work them yourself. BPs 1st&2nd 0----413 1----756 2----894 3----610 4----425 5----256 6----155 7-----88 8-----35 9------5 10-----4 11-----2 13-----1 Look how nice and streamlined the BPs are, light at the top, those up there get their tags, the ones in the middle and bottom get their fair share also keeping the sides trimed. Every year the same thing. Takeing an unnatural amount from the top will cause the max pool to be one BP group in a short time and because those behind aren't having many tags, they will bunch up also. The more the top groups bunch and continue to square their points the less tags for those under until it's a PP system and totally clogged. If I only use the first choice, man, I can move 1375 apps through fast without squaring. Of course there will be more than that if it was 1st only draw, alot of those second choicers would back off the higher draws and come back to this one as 1st. Hey, backing off the higher draws, would that help those waiting for a premium tag? Even 9ER is nice and streamlined and holding at 18 BPs max, not bad. Ok, you squared 9ER, that's 150,000 numbers for just that hunt the computer has to give out, square all the hunts and you get a 15,000,000? more? I don't like my odds, even with 1500 numbers against that many. You're selling more lottery tickets in the lottery I'm trying to win, even with 1500 tickets. I still don't know why just because someone wants to hold out, their BPs should be worth more squared per, than mine per. I had some other snappy things to say but I forgot. The main question you have for me is not if I think you will be able to in the long run get everyone a elk tag faster on average, but if I think those that have more BPs should have a right to more then their natural share of tags no matter what happens to everyone else. Your answer is yes and mine is no. I give you credit for working out a decent responce. Kent

This may be boring as heck but I like this stuff. It'll take a few posts to go through just a couple of hunt choices but maybe we can make a guesstimation and some general observations. If there's not an interested responce I'll just drop it. The #1 hunt in Az, unit 9 early rifle, #3004, year 2008 ,25 tags For some reason there is no way to just copy the info and paste it here, makes it hard but I'll hand type the important stuff. BP 1st 2nd (tags drew) 0- 338- 80---- 0 1- 462- 145---- 2 2- 555- 139---- 0 3- 488- 143---- 3 4- 341- 122---- 0 lower bp groups 21,074 choices 5- 324- 101---- 2 6- 296- 89---- 6 7- 237- 67---- 0 8- 202- 94---- 3 9- 162- 56---- 0 ---------------------- 10- 144- 54---- 1 11- 128- 32---- 1 12- 86- 26---- 0 13- 80- 24---- 0 upper bp groups 9,422 choices 14- 48- 24---- 0 15- 34- 16---- 2 16- 21- 5---- 0 ----------------------- 17- 6- 1---- 2 18- 3- 0---- 3 20% pass First observation is that the system is working as designed. 5 tags went in the max pool and left 4 of the 17 bpers dropping into the general draw. I'm leaving out the 2nd choicer because they got a tag on whatever 1st choice they put in for, more to come on the 2nd choicers putting in for the most difficult unit to draw. If the same 17ers only put in for unit 9 this year, next year there will be 4 18 bpers, probably at least one was drawn for a 2nd choice tag. No creep with 20%. Since this is really for 2008, we'll find out this year how many 16,15,14 bpers drew 2nd choice and how much creep there are in those groups. I split them in upper and lower because the upper groups are usually in it for the long haul, especially in the middle and lower hunts, maybe not so much here. A 13 bper would still be a Hail Mary thrower. The upper group should have gotten 6 tags but only 4, Oh well, just the way it turned out. the lower group had more power and reaped more tags as it should. Now some funny stuff, all second choices were a waste, if they had a low enough alloted # to get a 9ER tag they would have easily drawn their 1st choice before it came to their 2nd. The 2 thru 11 groups all are pretty equal in there choice power 2000 to 2600 range for each one. Very few of these apps are in it for the long haul and are pretty much taking a free shot with their first choice, as are most with 0 to 14. If you force them to decide which hunt they really want on their first choice, it'll probably be a much easier to draw tag and get them out of the way. You'll only compete against those that are in it like yourself. This even goes to cow tags and they might like to keep the 'I really only want a bull tag but will take your cow tag if I'm not that lucky' guy out. There's Hail Mary throwers in every hunt. I'm still working on the 1st choice deal and I'm not seeing that much improvement because of some of the same variables as the other suggestions. Lots to look at. Kent

DubTee, you are the first one from two sites and hundreds of posts to look at the numbers and add in past knowledge to see a trend and come up with a reasonable reponce to me. Thanks. There are plenty of people that know the numbers, just none of the ones that have been hammering me. Just a quick change on your numbers, doesn't change your well thought out ideas. 2 bpers have 3x3530=10,590 choices 10 bpers have 11x678=7,458 choices Just some quick thoughts. The early rifle tags are almost another animal in themselves, much more like sheep tags. I know this is what most of the guys are really wanting to change without coming right out and saying it. 22,780 applicants for 230 tags in the early rifle, not even counting the early muzzy. The 2 bpers sure made a killing. 100 of the 230 tags went to the top half BP pools, the bottom half BP pools had more choices after the 20% pass. Unit 9 by itself had 5173 apps for 25 tags, if everyone was serious that would take 200 years to get a tag even if it was a lifetime tag. The thing that effects the draw odds the most in these hunts is the 'Hail Mary' throwers on the first choice. If there wasn't a free shot at these hunts at least 3/4ths of the apps wouldn't be there. Even in these hunts only 5 had more 1st choice apps in the top BP pool half, the other 4 hunts had more that thought it wasn't good enough to be 1st choice. Trying to change the entire system with a 50% or squaring BPs for just a few tags is what we're talking about here and just like the sheep tags what can you really do. Moving closer to a preferance system may be the fairest thing in the case of these tags, but not for the other 20,000 tags out there. It's funny that every state with some kind of pts are always having their hunters gripe about the system and pointing to other states as having a better one. Az is considered by many in other states as having the best system and we look at others and think the same of them. NM has it right and didn't get in this mess. Well, either we take these tags out of the system and put them in their own draw and then make a PP system or we keep dealing with them the way it is. Or we go to a 1st choice only first draw and cut out the 'Hail Mary' throwing. Or we just give everyone a tag for one year and then can get rid of BPs and start over. Kent

RoughCut, I'm also intriged a little at taking 12,000 bull hunters out of the draw the first year and then 24,000 there after. The bonus point odds don't allow most to get another tag within the next few years anyway, cases like your BIL are there but not in great numbers. I also remember when they had the wait period when I was young, it really sucked and didn't help anything back then. Todays different and I'm on the fence like you, not really sure I like it because of the past. If someone comes up with a substandual reason then maybe I could decide. Kent

redneck, beautifully said, I lost my mother 2 yrs ago to bone cancer, LOVE YOU MOM! Kent

I'm just saying that is a very extreme case and I can see how you are annoyed. That may be the most extreme case I've heard about and annoys me on a certain level also. Human nature. There are people that piggyback off their family members bps. Drawing those many tags solo means he is just beating everyone in the overall number lottery. The lowest number everyone is alloted in the lottery before going to the actual draw. Once the numbers are given, the draw goes through those numbers in order. He's pulling some very low numbers consistantly to be getting tags. If all bull hunts are premium, (the only way to keep him from getting a bull tag with that low number) then allowing him in the cow hunts will only allow him to take tags from those hunters with his low number. Many hunters consider cow hunts premium and already are competeing 4 to 1 for tags, they don't want 12,000 bull hunters the first year, and 24,000 the second, forced into their territory, competeing for tags. Has to be a system that is fair for everyone. Kent

Bill,I absolutely agree with your ideas that I've heard you express before. I'm not bringing it up though. Kent

RoughCut, your example of your BIL is on the extreem end but annoying non-the-less. He is either the luckiest guy in the world putting in by himself, or has a network of others he puts in with on different years that up his bp odds. If he is riding luck then he is just beating everyone in the number allotment phase. Which of his hunts he drew would be considered premium, if not 6B and 11M then he would have still been in the draw and still beating everyone. I don't know if the 22% NR rule would apply to 6B and 11M. All bull hunts including nov. archery? just rut hunts and rifle hunts? just rut hunts? Also, will they be able to apply for nonpremium tags during their wait period. Just some things to think on before moving forward, not trying to be contrary. Kent

Emotionaly, yes, I don't want to hear that guy bragging again. Realistically, where's the cutoff at premium, most rifle cow hunts are a 4 to 1 ratio, app to tag. Is that premium. Set some parameters this time. Kent

Very nice! Kent

sdr, look at your CA example, I like it. That's exactly the direction we would be moving. CA: has a system in place that is almost a preference point system where 90% of the tags are issued to the max point pool. they have no other draw structures to accommodate the quantity type hunters that prefer to hunt as much as often regardless of quality. if you apply in CA and you don’t have A LOT of pref. points already you may very well be out of the loop with nearly impossible odds. CA does not have the supply and has huge demand. Again; AZ: has a system in place that is almost a preference point system where 50% of the tags are issued to the max point pool. they have no other draw structures to accommodate the quantity type hunters that prefer to hunt as much as often regardless of quality. if you apply in AZ and you don’t have A LOT of pref. points already you may very well be out of the loop with nearly impossible odds. AZ does not have the supply and has huge demand. After a few years it will need to be moved to 75%, then 90% like CA's. It's already happening with wanting to move from 20% to 50%, I remember when it was 20% will fix it over 10%. Colorado's system works there because you can kill 2 elk a year without drawing your coveted tag. Their system has gotten so clogged when it comes to the premium hunts that they're looking for answers themselves. In our state there would effectively only be a first choice on all hunts and a definate wait period on even cow hunts. There are on most cow hunts, 4 apps per 1 tag, every tag in AZ is high demand in one way or another. Squaring pts is making someones bps more valuable than someone elses, my dollars spent on licenses and tags, amount to more than someone that is waiting it out for a tag. My BP should have at least the same value per BP as that person. If I have 2 and he has 10, he has an advantage. I'm not sold on me having 4 and him having 100, just because he decided to wait for a hard to get tag, what's so special about that. I'm just trying to make you guys think and come up with some facts and data to support your proposal. I guess when you walk into G&F you don't need to be prepared with detailed examples/facts of how the change will be benefical to the majority of hunters. They'll just say, hey, sounds good, 50% over 20%, why didn't we think of that. Somehow I'm supposed to feel ashamed that I have researched the draw odds over the years to try and improve my families chances. I'm tired of having the G&F change processes because the anti's whining over here with nothing but emotion, some of our own hunters crying because it will help their tiny group but hurt the majority without any real data, the Commission changing our traditional archery hunt structure without real data or the Commission changing hunt structures with weighted surveys and for monetary reasons, not wildlife data reasons. I'm nobody, never got involved with these political issues beyond complaining around the campfire. Well that was my mistake and I'm not going to sit around anymore. You want to make it harder for my wife to get a cow tag, you better have more of an explanation than, it just has to be better. Because. At least show how the changed % will effect the variables in a positive direction/trend, time and efficently wise to warrant a change, even if it's just a logical guess. But you have to have some understanding of the current direction/trend to show the difference. Like a graph with the current trend in red and your improved version in blue, all I see from you guys is a one line graph. Same old stuff we deal with all the time with G&F changes. The only comparasion example I've heard is, Joe got 2 tags in a few years apart and Jim is still waiting for his. So the system needs to be changed to 50%. Well, Joe won out in the initial number allocation before the draw, he ended up with one of the 20 tags out of the 650 2 bper's recieved because of their bp power. He was getting a tag any way because his number was lower than Jim's even with a 50%. You'll need to change the inital allocation system. I think we're the only two willing to talk about this anymore and I'm tiring of it myself. It's a dead issue not going anywhere. Kent

I also just tried the Alaska guide that Jaret makes this weekend. I wanted to see how it did with my pack on at the same time. I stuffed it with more than I would usually take just to see. Binos, GPS, cell phone, keys, headlamp, extra batteries and the camera that took the pic. No problems with rubbing with the pack on, that was #1. Loved having eveything right in front of me and not having to hold on to my binos with my left hand to keep them from beating me to death. It was really hot at 88 deg when we left on the trail, the pouch was warm where it pressed on the front but not nearly as bad as I thought and wasn't uncomfortable. I have some more things to try with it, like crawling but should work better than dragging my binos. Kent

"we all know that the draw/life is not static thus we have to assume the same variables will apply to both static scenarios. do you have an explanatioin? i am curious." This is what I've discussed over on the other site and now here. That's an assumtion that's wrong and the root of the whole deal. You change the structure, you change the variables. I'm sorry if my answers are both simple and complicated at the same time. Everything I wrote was an answer to your statement about static and variables. I listed only a small part of the variables involved. At least if you would look at the data and then have a different perspective of the variables than myself, we could have a conversation. The answer to your Question is, any NR without max points that puts in for a hunt that fills the NR up to 10% in the max pool. I'd like to see it go back to 10%. If you went through the data, you would see that pretty much after the 20% pass, BP power takes over. The lower BP groups have many more BPs than the upper groups left. The upper groups get a few more tags than they probably should, but the lower groups seem to be more in chaos with their picks and knock themselves out. Helping this year and the next year. Any rise in % pass increases the value of the higher BP holders BPs and decreases the value of the lower BP holders BPs. Also restricts the variables (amount of tags) that keep things moving in the lower and middle groups. If you feel that strongly just take it to G&F and get it passed, I'm sure you have all the support you need right. Why worry about my lonely voice in the wilderness. Kent