krp

Emotionaly, yes, I don't want to hear that guy bragging again. Realistically, where's the cutoff at premium, most rifle cow hunts are a 4 to 1 ratio, app to tag. Is that premium. Set some parameters this time. Kent

Very nice! Kent

sdr, look at your CA example, I like it. That's exactly the direction we would be moving. CA: has a system in place that is almost a preference point system where 90% of the tags are issued to the max point pool. they have no other draw structures to accommodate the quantity type hunters that prefer to hunt as much as often regardless of quality. if you apply in CA and you don’t have A LOT of pref. points already you may very well be out of the loop with nearly impossible odds. CA does not have the supply and has huge demand. Again; AZ: has a system in place that is almost a preference point system where 50% of the tags are issued to the max point pool. they have no other draw structures to accommodate the quantity type hunters that prefer to hunt as much as often regardless of quality. if you apply in AZ and you don’t have A LOT of pref. points already you may very well be out of the loop with nearly impossible odds. AZ does not have the supply and has huge demand. After a few years it will need to be moved to 75%, then 90% like CA's. It's already happening with wanting to move from 20% to 50%, I remember when it was 20% will fix it over 10%. Colorado's system works there because you can kill 2 elk a year without drawing your coveted tag. Their system has gotten so clogged when it comes to the premium hunts that they're looking for answers themselves. In our state there would effectively only be a first choice on all hunts and a definate wait period on even cow hunts. There are on most cow hunts, 4 apps per 1 tag, every tag in AZ is high demand in one way or another. Squaring pts is making someones bps more valuable than someone elses, my dollars spent on licenses and tags, amount to more than someone that is waiting it out for a tag. My BP should have at least the same value per BP as that person. If I have 2 and he has 10, he has an advantage. I'm not sold on me having 4 and him having 100, just because he decided to wait for a hard to get tag, what's so special about that. I'm just trying to make you guys think and come up with some facts and data to support your proposal. I guess when you walk into G&F you don't need to be prepared with detailed examples/facts of how the change will be benefical to the majority of hunters. They'll just say, hey, sounds good, 50% over 20%, why didn't we think of that. Somehow I'm supposed to feel ashamed that I have researched the draw odds over the years to try and improve my families chances. I'm tired of having the G&F change processes because the anti's whining over here with nothing but emotion, some of our own hunters crying because it will help their tiny group but hurt the majority without any real data, the Commission changing our traditional archery hunt structure without real data or the Commission changing hunt structures with weighted surveys and for monetary reasons, not wildlife data reasons. I'm nobody, never got involved with these political issues beyond complaining around the campfire. Well that was my mistake and I'm not going to sit around anymore. You want to make it harder for my wife to get a cow tag, you better have more of an explanation than, it just has to be better. Because. At least show how the changed % will effect the variables in a positive direction/trend, time and efficently wise to warrant a change, even if it's just a logical guess. But you have to have some understanding of the current direction/trend to show the difference. Like a graph with the current trend in red and your improved version in blue, all I see from you guys is a one line graph. Same old stuff we deal with all the time with G&F changes. The only comparasion example I've heard is, Joe got 2 tags in a few years apart and Jim is still waiting for his. So the system needs to be changed to 50%. Well, Joe won out in the initial number allocation before the draw, he ended up with one of the 20 tags out of the 650 2 bper's recieved because of their bp power. He was getting a tag any way because his number was lower than Jim's even with a 50%. You'll need to change the inital allocation system. I think we're the only two willing to talk about this anymore and I'm tiring of it myself. It's a dead issue not going anywhere. Kent

I also just tried the Alaska guide that Jaret makes this weekend. I wanted to see how it did with my pack on at the same time. I stuffed it with more than I would usually take just to see. Binos, GPS, cell phone, keys, headlamp, extra batteries and the camera that took the pic. No problems with rubbing with the pack on, that was #1. Loved having eveything right in front of me and not having to hold on to my binos with my left hand to keep them from beating me to death. It was really hot at 88 deg when we left on the trail, the pouch was warm where it pressed on the front but not nearly as bad as I thought and wasn't uncomfortable. I have some more things to try with it, like crawling but should work better than dragging my binos. Kent

"we all know that the draw/life is not static thus we have to assume the same variables will apply to both static scenarios. do you have an explanatioin? i am curious." This is what I've discussed over on the other site and now here. That's an assumtion that's wrong and the root of the whole deal. You change the structure, you change the variables. I'm sorry if my answers are both simple and complicated at the same time. Everything I wrote was an answer to your statement about static and variables. I listed only a small part of the variables involved. At least if you would look at the data and then have a different perspective of the variables than myself, we could have a conversation. The answer to your Question is, any NR without max points that puts in for a hunt that fills the NR up to 10% in the max pool. I'd like to see it go back to 10%. If you went through the data, you would see that pretty much after the 20% pass, BP power takes over. The lower BP groups have many more BPs than the upper groups left. The upper groups get a few more tags than they probably should, but the lower groups seem to be more in chaos with their picks and knock themselves out. Helping this year and the next year. Any rise in % pass increases the value of the higher BP holders BPs and decreases the value of the lower BP holders BPs. Also restricts the variables (amount of tags) that keep things moving in the lower and middle groups. If you feel that strongly just take it to G&F and get it passed, I'm sure you have all the support you need right. Why worry about my lonely voice in the wilderness. Kent

So you're saying the same thing I've given senarios for and what I've reserched for years in the draw process, cause and effect + chaos have more of a result in moving the process along than keeping everyone in a controled line. The more people are controled into staying in the same line the longer it will take to get through. Oh, you'll have a better idea when you will be guaranteed to finally get through. It definately could be longer than if there are more avenues for some to move out of line, can't be sooner. Until some of you guys actually go through and research the yearly BP/draw odds/BP groups/pass % results that come out and watch what trends are happening year to year, you're guessing at what can actually help. Or if there even needs to be help. If you can answer some of these things, then we can actually have a debate, I'm done with "You're wrong cause I think so". If you at least can back up your ideas with what you see as a trend in the system and the numbers that are there, then I can respect that and am willing to listen. How many elk hunts actually had more first choice applicants than second in the top half of the bonus point pools, example if 20 was the top then 11 and up would be the top 1/2. Why do some cow hunts have applicants with up to or more than 10 BPs apply, how likely is someone with 5 or 6 BPs putting in for cow hunts second choice. If a majority of people are drawing their second choice, where's their loyalty to their first choice. Over 200,000 people actually have BPs, only 80,000 apply, how controllable is that. If you go to a 100% max pool will anyone draw a tag on their second choice, even a cow tag. How many cow hunts are less than a 4 to 1 app to tag ratio. Who want's cow hunts be become PP hunts in Az. How much does the BP power of the lower half BP groups have and can that be overcome with a 50% pass. Will you need to look at changing the lottery numbers allocation to unit specific instead of spiecies specific. Just of a few of the many things to discuss, if you know what you're talking about. Is the G&F so stupid they haven't run numbers and looked at other states systems to see if they could improve the system. I am critical of the Commission at times, but there are a lot of smart people that work for G&F that know more than you or I. I don't have to prove anything, you're the one's trying to push change, just asking you to supply a better reason than 'you think your way is the best way'. If you can show where a person will get a tag faster on average than the 'true current trend' (if you have been following the last few years you would know) I will back you. Otherwise I'm going to fight for the NR that will be screwd and 95% of the resident hunters that will be also. Kent

sdr, headed out the house to Backpack scout with the wife and daughter, look at it when I get home. Just a thought, numbers don't mean squat for movement, direction does. If every one has to move in the same direction it takes forever to get there if your behind at all. In a mathimatical since, when the light turns green, everyone should be able to hit the gas at the same time and go. Reality is different, the only way to get everyone going is shoot them in as many different directions as possible. That's reality. Choke them with preferance % and traffic slows down. Again, show me why unit 1 archery is at only 11 bps in a downward trend, not 16 or so, that's reality. Kent

sdr, why not a 100% preference, if 50% is faster than 20%, then 100% has to be faster than 50%. there really isn't any way to dispute the facts about mathmatical equations. from, waiting to be learn'd.

Why stop at 50%, just go straight to 100% and for sure wait 24 bps instead of the 11 bps now. 100 is better than 50 any day, has to be. Or half the people drop out and try for easier cow hunts that they now only have to wait for 3 or 4 years to get. Hey, then it's only 12 bps to get a tag, that has to be better than the whatever it is now. I haven't looked at any numbers, someone said it was 11 bps but they are ignorant, no way. That would mean the system works about the same no matter what the % and half the people somehow move around the system now, no way. 50% just has to be better, it has to, it's, 30% better. If Bubbas or whoever can get me a tag with 10 bps starting now, they're my hero. 15s the best he could come up with at 50% max pool. No thanks, I'll take my chances with the way it is now. From, unfortunate to be so uneducated.

I buy whatever's on sale and like Coues 'n' Sheep, material is #1. nylon and wool, no cotton. If my pants match my shirt or jacket it would be by accident my camo pattern is always in a state of change, depends on the bloodstains. Kent

Dubtee, I'm not saying I'm right with my suggestion, just that if there needs to be change then actually change it. Forget the math, the more I tried to show wheither or not a change in % pass will make much of a difference, the more I realised 3700 apps - 150 tags still = 3550, no matter the pass%. That was a brainstorming thread that evolved, at least for me. I belong to the 'Ugly tag crew', maybe the only good thing that came out of that thread, and have no tags in this fight, myself. As I was going over the numbers again and again, I noticed some trends, no way anyone can figure a 100% path. Why had the top pool in unit 1 dropped to 11 bps to get in? Shouldn't it be like 20. Why are there more 2nd choice picks in the top half BP pools in all but 2 or 3 premium hunts. The 2nd choice picks are drawing more tags in the max pool than first choice. The lower half bp pools control a powerful advantage in bps and yet are considered interlopers if they happen to draw a tag. Why is someone that has been putting in for tags for 15 yrs without drawing when they know the odds, suddenly have a guaranteed option over me that have been hunting and paying fees for 40 yrs wheither I've drawn or not shouldn't matter, I've spent more money. (this last was said tounge-in-cheek, and is the unreasonable argument for their unreasonableness). Maybe the more a system shakes and jumps, not locked in, the easier it moves downhill, throwing off the waste and gaining speed. Again how come unit 1 is only at 11 bps max pool. Maybe we need to go back to the 10% to get it shaking more and help our NR applicants at the same time. 50% pass will make every hunt a PP system for NRs, not just the premium hunts. 50% pass will not lower the max point bp pool and only creep it upwards. I don't kmow why the 20% pass is not skyrocketing upwards, I can only look at the trend it's moving on now. The 1st choice only draw will take out half of the choices in the first draw. 80,000 instead of 160,000. Take out the 2nd choice and Hail Mary throwers out of each hunt choice and cut those numbers in half on average. Getting 1900 through a proccess is much easier than getting 3700 through. You will only compete with those that are serious for the tag as you are, premium or cow tag, if you're serious about it you don't want everyone and their grandma in with you. If you want to jump in with only a few bps for a premium hunt, more power to ya, at least you're risking something. 1st choice only would have knocked the max pool to 9 in unit 1 instead of 11. Don't know how long that trend will last but should cont for awhile. Should help those that want to draw a cow tag on their first choice. I'm not saying I have the answers but have looked at it harder than most and at least tried to answer the question about a 50% pass. I don't even care if they change anything, except for the NRs problem and tweeking the youth tags a little. I'll get my 'Ugly tags' consistantly and work hard to make them successful. Kent

There were 81,213 apps for 25,446 elk tags. 2008 That's 162,426 choices in the draw if every one put a 1st and 2nd choice down. So roughly 25,000 for 160,000. In unit 1 archery bull more than 1/2 the applicants (713) in the top half BP groups, 7 thru 14 BPs, chose this hunt as their 2nd choice. 16 of 30 20% pass pool tags went to 2nd choicers. The 13 and 14 BPers were ship jumpers or they would have drawn in 2007 in the max pool. The top half BP groups recieved 73 of 150 tags with about 6600 chances in the draw The bottom half BP groups, 0 thru 6 BPs, recieved 77 of 150 tags with over 17,000 chances in the draw. 6600 choices against 17,000+ and still get about 1/2 the tags. That's somehow not enough? Especially to such diehard, wait so long, oopps I got my 2nd choicers/ ship jumpers. The more open and flexable the system the more opportunity for others to be knocked out of your BP pool and up your odds down the road by their own choice. The second choicers that drew a unit 1 20% pass tag were close to being a big player in whatever unit they put for 1st choice, now they're not anymore uping the odds of those dedicated to that hunt. This works down even for those that only put in for nonpopular bull and cow hunts. If you up the pass % you stiffen up the system and cause each BP group to take 2 or 3 years to pass before another will move into the max pool. Less tags for people to fall by the wayside including cow tags with this system. To understand a little how fluctuating people are coming in and out of the system is consider this. There are 206,638 indidviduals with BPs for elk as of 2008 and only 81,000 applied, where are all the rest, they had to have applied in the last 3 yrs or would have lost their BPs. http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/pdfs/BonusP...all2008Draw.pdf I added them up, maybe I'm missing something. If you want true change you will need to somehow reduce the number of choices per hunt choice. 3700 1st and 2nd choices in unit 1 and 150 tags. How many are Hail Mary throwers and then choose a easy to draw hunt second, how many put their kids and wives and grandparents with 2 bps in just in case. How many put it down as 2nd choice with a descent number of BPs effecting both 1st and 2nd choice hunter pools. What if you cut out the 2nd choice in the first round? 3700 goes down to 2000 maybe lower, only those that are serious about your hunt will compete with you, if they want to put in with 2 bps at least they are serious and more power to them. Since most bull tags would be gone in the first round, no one is going to take to much of a chance if they really would rather have a late rifle tag instead of waiting 9 years for your tag. Those wanting just cow tags don't have the 'Oh I'll settle for your cow hunt 2nd choicer either'. I know plenty of people that only put in cow hunts. All you lose is your Hail Mary shot but so does everyone else. 2nd choice would be it's own round and would use up your bps, if you only want a decent or great bull tag then just pass on this. 3,4,5 choice would be for some LO tags or whatever's left, if drawn no bps taken, you could put a 1st no 2nd and a 3,4,5 to keep your bps. No need to designate premium tags, they will automatically only appeal to those willing to wait it out. If you want a waiting period (I don't) use BPs. You need 3 bps to be drawn for anything but a BP, hunter safety bp means 2 yrs, HS and L bps mean 1 year wait. When Az first went to a draw they had a 1st and 2nd choice to even the field, then they added the BPs to even the field, now that Bps have matured the 2 processes seem to be fighting against each other. One needs to go. Kent

Absolutely. 100%, what IT's about. Add your own IT. My IT is family time. Thanks Lance. Kent

I forgot to say, HEY, leave some for the kids, fish hog. Kent

Nice, looks close to where I live. Kent

If you go with the heavier arrow you will need to do something to adjust for spine. There is a certain flex your arrow needs to come out straightest. Up the poundage to get more flex. Most bows are close to the top of adjustment and don't have alot of room to move here. Add length to the arrow so it will flex correctly. We are used to shooting arrows that are a certain length so this may feel akward. Add weight to the broadhead. The shaft will flex more as it pushes against more resistance to initally get momentum started. I say go with the heavier head and then fine tune your poundage to match the arrow and head combo. Kent

Massey, nice,nice critters, that's get'in er done! Kent

The rage heads will kill an elk, in the 90's as bows got faster and fixed broadheads couldn't keep up accuracy wise out to the distances now attainable, mechanicals had an accuracy advantage and therefore a distance advantage. We killed elk with slower bows and not as good mechs than the rage. The question wasn't can a rage kill an elk, it was, is a rage head better than a fixed head because of the speed I'm shooting. The answer is no, it's not. And I have tested rages to slick tricks. If all someone had was rages I wouldn't tell them they couldn't kill an elk. Kent

With the advent of accurate fix blade heads, there is no longer an advantage with mechs. You have a bow that shoots fast but now are going to lose penetration because of the mech head, just gave up any advantage. Might as well shoot a slower bow with a fixed, it will penetrate better. Kent

How close are you to being spined correctly? What's your draw wt and arrow length? Being grossly under or over spined is never good, there's no way to really tune your bow. You have to let your setup determine your arrow spine, can't change your bow to just any arrow. Of course if your max distance is short, like 30 yds, anything will work. Kent

I can get them for 15.00 LESS than the pse, 70.00 compared to 85.00, that's for shafts with nocs and inserts included. Kent

The Pse predator is a fine arrow. The Gold tip should be an XT hunter not the expedition, specs out the same as the pse and still a little less money. I have never tried the eastons, I'm just too cheap. I have the Pse and Gold tips, both shoot well if you get the correct spine for your setup. Lately it's been the GT's because I can get them for 15.00 less for a dozen shafts. Kent

This is actually a nice hunt if you have the time and are willing to get back in some rough country. The bach bull groups are in the same places everyday when you find them, having the patience to wait them out for a shot opportunity is the key. There are slopes that always have bulls on them everyday during the winter, year to year, for at least the 15 or so years I've been observing. I would still be hunting this hunt but have decided to wait for one more rut tag. When it gets closer to your hunt and if you still need help let me know. Good luck, Kent

Are you talking first rifle as in the nov/dec hunts or as in sept/oct. Even the nov/dec tags are one of the best tags in the state. If you are willing to get back in and pack them out, nice bulls are there to be had. Kent

L C R 1052 Kent