Flatlander

16% 10% 14%

2% on the ML hunt Last year 23 pts was 100% for unit 1 antelope. 12 guys with 22 pts did not draw so it could creep a point this year. If it does, you less than a 5% chance of drawing.

15% 8% 2% based on last years 5A hunt 20%

22% first hunt 27% second hunt

13% 15%

The NR stuff is very hard to predict with the changes made. Basically for archery you will be one of 1490 total people competing for 8 non bonus pass NR tags, its a long shot but because of the changes this year, you are not mathematically eliminated. For the late rifle hunt you would have likely drawn it last year but this year with only 25 tags in the bonus pass you will probably have to wait for the 1-2 pass where you should have about a 24% chance. There is 0 chance of you drawing that late archery tag as a 3rd choice. Resident Archery - 12% Late Rifle - 35% Late Archery - 0%

6% 25% last year, less this year due to a 10% tag reduction 9%

9% 4% 16%

Lance and Bob are correct. There is no need to put your first and second choice as the same hunt. However if you do choose a second choice be careful not to choose a hint for which you will draw in the bonus pass. If you draw your second choice in the bonus pass you will not be considered for your 1st choice in the 1-2 pass. Hope this helps.

I was thinking of greeting an AES table but need about 5 people to fill it.

Archery elk hunts start on the 37th Friday of the year. Next year ago it will move back 6 days. When they discussed changing dates in 2008 is when they decided to add the November archery tags.

This year because of the very early archery dates I applied for muzzleloader first choice and a more premium archery tag than I typically would second choice. My reasoning was that with my number of BP I was 100% on 3/4 of the archery hunts. I did not want to burn a decade worth of points for a middle of the road hunt that also started crazy early and risk a poor rut. Now just my luck, next year it will be a drought year.

Are those 15 or 16 hunt numbers? These calcs need to be done via the bonus pass by hunt number.

^^^^^In 15 posts this guy figured out what guys with 900+ cant seem to get.

Not 100% for that hunt. Sorry I didn't get back to you sooner, text me later today and I will look up some hunts you will be close to 100% on. 480 266 4811

Come on now you got to tell us what you did if you are going to say something like that!

Good, I am thinking hard about this one.

Don't do it Mike!

That could have been a LONG wait. So don't leave us hanging. What did you do?

Well I'm in. Here's hoping.

That was great analysis. Jay you said that 23 South archery is a great hunt for the right kind of hunter. How would you define that type of hunter? I agree and have my opinions but am curious about what you think.

Muzzy tag should be much better with the reduced tags and seasons.

Just noticed while doing my app that they cut the 19a archery lope hunt from 2 weeks to 1 week. That ought to put a dent in the success rate. Guess I am looking elsewhere, 3bn is sounding better all the time.

About the same as a 3bn lope hunt. Sucks.

Nope, I just feel like around here we don't need a law to tell us right from wrong, and we police our own.