Flatlander

Awesome cats. Some real bruisers in there

If you anticipate hunting lope, which I suspect because you posted in that section, a spotting scope is a must. In order to really field judge those things you have to have a lot o glass. Cutters and mass are not easy to figure out.

A couple quick notes to folks who are looking for folks who are posting: 1.IF USING HUNT NUMBERS BE SURE THEY ARE 2014 HUNT NUMBERS. 2. If you have fewer than 15 bonus points, your odds for rifle antelope are <6% regardless of which hunt you are applying for. 3. If you have fewer than 10 bonus points, your odds for early rifle bull (not limited opp.) are <3% 4. Please denote early or late when referencing archery hunts, if not noted I am assuming early. Good luck everybody and keep them coming.

3 applicants 2 have 2 bonus points and the other has 1 All putting in on the same app and all are residents. 1st - late rifle bull 6A 8% 2nd - early archery bull 5BN 8% 2%, 10%, 17% 2% And 11m archery bull 2bps - 8%, 12% Resident elk #3112 & 3139, 3 bp. 7% 1% Also, non-res 3125 & 3003 with 5 BP 0% All the NR tags were gone in the bonus pass for those hunts. Forget about that 23 Early Rifle tag as a NR if you have fewer than 21 pts. With only 1 NR tag inthat unit, you're simply donating your app fee. 2 resident applicants 4bp each. Early archery bull unit 1 and 4a 5% 10% 1 resident applicant 4bp rifle antelope unit 4a and archery antelope 4a 2%, 4% 1 resident applicant 20bp unit 10 rifle antelope 3% 1 non-resident applicant 4bp early archery bull unit 9 and 4a 0% in unit 9,the NR quota is met in the bonus pass 4A is 10% Thank you Flatlander for sharring this info, I was able to find my hunts/bp by reading through the previous posts, can you tell me what is the magic number of bonous points for early archery bull in unit 8 and unit 3a/3c. thx again 9 and 11 early rifle unit 27 16 bp resident Probably about 2%, that is two off the bonus pass. There wasn't a hunt there last year so I have to project a little bit. How about a NR going into 2015 with 21 points applying for a 2015 Elk 3109 and 3005. I assume these are 2015 hunt numbers because last year 3109 was a late hunt. I think you are probably golden on either hunt, depending on where those NR max point holders apply. But last year 21 did the trick in unit 10 early rifle, and with 10 NR tags, its your best choice of a NR tag getting past the max pool. Also, be careful with that unit 9 ML hunt. They moved it up 3 weeks and its going to be more pre-rut than past years. Person 1 5bp 3a3c early arch 8% 7w late rifle 44% be careful if you want that archery tag, you could draw late rifle inthe bonus pass and never even have your first choice considered. Person 2 5bp 3a3c early arch 8% 5b late rifle 16% Person 3 4bp 3a3c early arch <8% 23 late rifle 56% Person 4 1bp 6a late rifle 5% 5b late rifle 5% Someone in that should grab a tag, but I can't stop doing odds for others to run the total probability on that one, sorry. Resident w/ 14 Pts. Hunt #s 3001 and 3120 2%, 100%

There are a handful of limited opp hunts that can be drawn as a 3rd - 5th choice. Outside of that, its pretty slim pickens. The number of elk tags this year in AZ is 385 less than it was last year. With a record number of applicants last year, and a reduced number of tags this year, its going to be tougher than ever to get tags, but if, you want to hunt elk, there are plenty of options that provide you with that option every single year.

What year?

PM the hunt # to me

White crew cab F150

Anyone want to join forces this Saturday? I will be heading out from Gilbert for a day hunt. Probably headed to the tortolita's but have a couple new spots in mind I was considering. Have 15's and am a competent capable human being who doesn't need to leach of anyone else. Just looking to split gas and double the eye-power.

Here is the file.2014 Pronghorn and Elk - Bonus Point Report - 1-2 Pass by Hunt Number.pdf And the odds for early archery tags range from 1% - 21%, hardly great odds. If you are referring to late archery hunts, the odds are very favorable with 3 pts, but the success rates are not.

Early archery bull, res, 6 points. 8 18% 7W 10% 6A 60% 5BS 11% Antelope, rifle, res, 20 points. 5B 1.16% 7 2.54% 9 1.75% Unit 10 early Rifle bull elk Res 15pnts., 4% #3115 Resident with 4pts 36% Non Resident with 1pt 14% #3130 Resident with 4pts 13% #3173 Resident with 4pts Close to 100% You would have to be very unlucky not to get this tag, which is possible. #3053 Resident with 4pts 100% last year, but they cut tags this year so it may get tougher. archery bull 23s 8% 23n 30% and 3a3c100% early archery 13pts and a seperate applicant 5 pts same units 2%, 3%, 8% 23BP Antelope 1st- 2023 100% 2nd- 2012 100% 15BP Elk 1st- 3005 1% Friend: Resident, one applicant. 18BP Antelope% 1st-2023 3% 2nd- 2012 2% Daughter: Resident, one applicant. 3BP Antelope 1st- 2023 1% 2nd- 2012 1% 1BP Elk 1st- 3005 1% 2nd- 3018 10% Wife: Resident, one applicant. 3BP Antelope 1st- 2023 Same as above 2nd- 2012 3BP Elk 1st- 3005 1% 2nd- 3018 20% Elk - 1 Applicant, 5 bonus points 1st: 27, Archery Bull, Sep 11-24 9% 2nd: 27 Late Rifle Bull, Nov 27-Dec 3 24% Antelope - 1 Applicant, 13 bonus points 1st: 19A, Rifle, Sep 11-17 3% 2nd: 21, Rifle, Sep 4 3% Youth Cow Elk- Two applicants, each with 4 BP's, Resident, Units 1&2C (Hunt Number 3061) and unit 6A (Hunt Number 3064) Both over 50%, putting in together makes it a little tougher, but they have a great shot. They deserve it after waiting 3 years to hunt. 19 points resident antelope want a rifle tag what's my father in laws best chance starting to not be able to hump the hills anymore - Get a Muzzleloader, otherwise look north of the ditch. 6 pts resident unit 8 archery bull - 18% Resident. Unit 4b. Early rifle cow. 3 pts and 4 pts. - 11%, 23% Goat, 21 points for 18B? 17% Bull elk, points for MZ 9B? I can't answer this question 3 resident hunters putting in together with 1 bp looking for first elk hunt for all 3 hunters thinking of 5a 7e 9 and 10 all late rifle 11%, 20%, 10%, 13% 3169- 2 PTS resident 1 applicant 8% For hunting in Sept it probably doesn't get any better really. September archery bull 7E, 3 bp, resident, 1 applicant 14% September archery bull 6b, 3 bp, resident, 1 applicant 18% Resident 19 points Elk Early Rifle Unit 10 Bull 100% Early Rifle Unit 23N Bull 22% Early Muzzleloader Unit 9 Bull Probably 100% non-res unit 27 w/ 10 bp early bull archery I don't think there will be any NR tags left at this BP level for either of these hunts. non-res unit 1 w/ 11 bp early bull archery 2 residents- one has 3 points one has zero. same application Antlerless elk 5 bs and 6a october 9%, 8% How about gmu 21 early muzzy, archery for elk 8pts. 4%, 5% Pronghorn archery unit 9 and 21 7pts.? 3%, 7% Unit 1 archery bull first choice, late rifle bull unit 1 second choice 7%, 12% 1 res early archery bull 6a 8% 7w 3% 5bn 5% 11m 5% early 8% second hunt Unit 1 Early Rifle Unit 3A/3C Early Rifle Unit 1 Early Archery 3% (Sorry its less than 1% on the others) Jr cow elk 6A with 2 bonus points? - 18% Hope this helps everyone, sorry it takes a little while to respond, but looking up all the odds takes a little bit even though they are all already calculated. Remember, to try and be specific, if you ask me what the easiest hunt to draw is, it will no longer be the easiest to draw because this thread has already had 3,600 views. And XNT there is no link to this information. I create it all myself.

In other units you will more or less have the woods to yourself on the late archery hunt. In Unit 22, everybody and their brother is in there. The very low number of tags is one of the few upsides to the late hunts, in my opinion. Other units are not much more difficult to draw, I would be willing to wait, but this is coming from a guy with 9 elk points and one who will very likely have 10 after this year.

SSS

That buck is incredible. I bet you are happy you let droopy live. Congrats.

Last year was my first. It was awesome. The raffles were fantastic and the auction was awesome to watch. I loved it.

18 bonus points is good enough to get you anywhere from 1-7% chances in the rifle goat draw. I wouldn't call it pathetic, seeing as I have 2 points. But picking up a smokepole or bow would definitely helping the situation.

Thanks for the update. I am gunna go hug my kids for a while.

My bad i meant 16 bp resident antelope 19a muzzy - 6% last year. They cut the tags this year so probably going to be less, as much as half. Be sure to do your homework onthis hunt before burning points on it. Several members had this tag last year, it might be worth reaching out to them. 5 b rifle - 1% (Archery/ML are good options for you)

66%, 6% 3%, 8% 6%, 15%, 16% Antelope - 2%, 2%, 6% Elk - 16%, 28%, 7%, 10% Ooh, its going o be close. On the rifle hunt I say probably about 10%, and the muzzy hunt is probably a little better, last time the ML hunt was in 27 17 bp did it, but that was two years ago. I think you are going to be close, but if you move West one unit, you have yourself a tag. Its all yours. Book the trip. 41%, 84% take the class

92%, 100%, 11% early archery bull 4b, late bull 4b, 4 points. 15% 71% (assuming rifle for late hunt) All 2014 hunt numbers. 3105 - 8pts, nonres, single hunter I didn't pull the NR breakdown on this one, but I think you are SOL at 8 pts as a NR. 3076 - 2 pts, nonres, single hunter 100% 3071 - 2 pts, nonres, single hunter 100% 3050 - 2 pts, nonres, single hunter 100% Resident antelope archery 8 points-19a 6%, 10% (two hunts) 19b 4%, 5% or 6b 34% Resident elk archery 3 points 19a 6b or 6a bull. 21%, 18%, 17% 20 pts Antelope. Dont archery hunt anymore. Think smokepole. Early archery bull 7e, 4b, 6a, 3pts Resident. 14%, 12%, 17% Archery antelope, 7, 21, and the early August 17b&19b hunt, 8pts, Resident 5%, 8%, 4% (that hunt is hot and the flies are miserable, btw) All are for resident, 2 points, rifle, unit 9 Elk: 1. Early rifle cow 23% 2. Late rifle bull 15% 3. Late rifle cow 54% muzzle loader 3B early 13 points 7%, 27 muzzle loader early 13 points <5% 4a and 4b early archery bull, 3 pts 8%, 12% Resident, 3080 and 3081, 2 bonus points 90% on each account All: One Resident applicant and 4 B.P. -3141 8% -3118 5% -3007 8% -3026 20% -3024 19% -3025 12% late rifle bull 27 1st, late unit 1 bull 2nd. 6bp 50%, 12% Unit 1 Early rifle bull 18 points. Unit 1 - I am guessing 12% the hunt was not held in this unit last year, but this will be close, and 19b for antelope with 18 points 1% look to muzzleloader or archery to cut years off the wait for a tag.

78% last year. With the cut in tags you are probably more like 50/50. But I would guess you are going to be out there. Antelope 16 bp non res 19a muzzy 5b rifle As a NR with 16 bonus points its probably time to think about archery or hunts with high tag numbers because the good ones are hitting the quota early. I don't think you will be able to draw either of these tags this year. Early right cow tag in say 5b, 2 points 9% South 12% South Resident rifle antelope unit 5A 14 points one applicant. 1% Early archery bull 5B South. 1 applicant, resident, 8 points and 9 points (2 separate options). 100% on both 5bs and 27 early archery bull, res, 7 pts 50%, 12% (be sure to reverse the order if you apply for both) 5b archery antelope, res, 10 pts 5% 5a early archery bull 4pts 12% & 6a late rifle bull 13% (assuming 4 pts) 19 pts 7W and 4B rifle one applicant 2%, 3% (Antelope) and 4pts early Archery Bull 4B and 4A one applicant 15%, 10% (again reverse the order if you apply for both) Early archery bull 5bs 4 points, resident one applicant 8% Late archery bull, 23, 1 point, 2 applicants, resident 67% Antelope rifle, unit 7, 1 applicant, resident, 8 bonus points 1% Elk sep archery bull, unit 27, 1 applicant, resident, 3 bonus points 6% Rifle Pronghorn Unit 5B 23 Points Resident This one is tricky. Last year 23 did the trick, but that was the max point pool and 10 guys with 22 points were not drawn for this hunt, and if they all apply for it again, then your chances are about 50/50. Also assuming no max point holders that sat last year out decide to join the fray or switch to this unit. You are in a good position, stick with it. Rifle pronghorn 5B Resident 11points 1 applicant <1% Archery elk 9/11-9/24 2 bonus points 5B north Resident 8% This used to be a sleeper unit. No more. It took 8 pts to hit 100% this tag last year.

3 pages on day 1? That's a record. This is going to take a while.

I try to shoot about 20 arrows 4-5x per week during season. during the off season I forget what my bow looks like.

The 1-2 pass is the first step in the random draw, so you are correct in your assumption. Here is a link to the explanation of the draw process http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/BigGameDrawingProcess.shtml Hopefully this helps straighten things out for you.

For guys to take a buck on the archery hunt and then hunt rifle the same year anyway or vice versa. I have a buddy who has started doing this every year. Makes me wonder, is this the exception or the rule? I quit hunting with him after doing every hunt together for 15 yrs cause of his shenanigans. But man, it still kind of chaps my backside a bit.