Flatlander

Man I hope this works out. Love the idea of a kid putting some sweat equity into his first set of hunting wheels.

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Me too, but not likely since I have just 7 BP and it was an early ML tag. It has been 10 years since I last had an AZ elk tag and I have my heart set on one in particular. Once I get that tag I will be working the odds every year trying o find a way to put a decent tag in my pocket as often as possible. Good luck to everyone, I hoped it helped out. I really enjoy seeing everyone get excited about the upcoming year. Thanks for the opportunity.

As promised the CHAMP hunts: Unit 6AN - 10% Unit 10 12%

Looks awesome Josh! Congrats.

Holy cow I think I got them all. I really apologize for the last minute ones tonight. It has been a very busy few weeks and I didn't have the time that I did last year. I hope everyone got what they needed. I won't be doing any tomorrow. I know that I owe one set of CHAMP odds, but it sounded like you had already applied and were just wondering about what your chances were. I promise to still calc those odds, but I wanted to take care of the guys who had not applied first. If I was wrong and you are counting on those odds, PM me and I will text you the odds before the deadline. Good luck, and the only thing I ask in return is that you tell me what you got drawn for and if the info helped you at all. Let the waiting begin!!!

21 Early ML = 8%, 5B Early ML = Something less than 8% (You could have 22S though) I am using the 2013 Midwinter Bonus Point Analysis Info, I do all the data entry myself from their raw data and develop my own spreadsheets. About 40%, 25% and 14% (Assuming 2013 HN) 1%, 12%

About 50%, 20%, 20%, 12%, 15% (11M doesn't have late archery hunts so I assume you meant early for that unit) 4%, 14% 13%, 17% 2%, 1% You are right not knowing is probably better. I don't know why I put myself through this every year, I just can't help it. Probably not unit 1 as 12 guys from last year were not drawn in the bonus pass. Unit 3A should make the bonus pass, but there will be more in that group than there are bonus pass tags available. "" ok thank you and ..... just a clarification for my moldy old brainy part....unit 1 would just be 22 spots in the draw and 3A would be 22 chances after a 50/50 chance in the bonus pass? or should i just pack it in until the next rodeo go-round? and here i thought being 'one-of-257' was a lucky number! thank you very much SIR, lee Sounds about right. I would never pack it in, 80% of the tags go to some lucky dude with a low random number. 15%

Price?

No. You lose them after missing 5 draws. The azgfd draw website has some bugs, no need to sweat it. Give them a call during business hours to confirm.

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Good info. I think everyone is wondering about this but I doubt very many folks don't apply.

100%, 17%, 4% Thanks TJ. I know this is selfish but I will take any good draw karma I can muster up. 3%, <3% Hope that answered all the questions so far. Good luck guys and don't wait until the last minute to apply, AZGFD is notorious for IT problems during the draw.

Assuming those wee the 2013 hunt numbers 16%, 14% I haven't ever run the champ hunts before, I guess I just haven't ever been asked. I will try to work up specific numbers later but at first glance you will be shy of 10% on his first two choices. His last three choices are irrelevant, none of those hunts can be drawn beyond the 1-2 pass. The points get averaged so in this case the 17 total points is divided by the number of applicants (4), and the 4.25 per applicant is rounded down to 4 bonus points for the application. Late rifle bull in unit 10 w/10 bp puts you at 27%. 7%, 9%

Man. I see the confusion now. Sorry with all the questions I had I somehow got my wires crossed. You are golden. Sorry about that.

Big Wave - Let me show you why I came to the conlcusion that you will not draw either of those tags: There are 273 NR with more bp than you currently have along with 269 Res. Additionally there are 342 people with 16 BP. Last year in unit 23 there were 4 BP tags and only 2 tags available to NR due to the 10% cap. In unit 10 there were 8 tags open to NR, and 15 bonus pass tags. With the bonus pass being split 50/50 between Residents and NR it is pretty safe to assume that the NR cap is being met before the 1-2 pass even begins. Last year both unit 23 and unit 10 required 18 BP to make the bonus pass. Because the NR cap is met before the 1-2 pass ever begins, your application with 16 random numbers assigned to it, is eliminated from consideration before the 1-2 pass begins. This is the harsh reality of the AZ draw system and the heavily sought after hunts for Non Residents. With 885 people who share or exceed your BP level and roughly 50 early rifle bull hunts available through the bonus pass, and only half that number available to NR, it may take many years to reach the bonus pass for an early rifle elk tag. I know this is not news that anyone enjoys hearing, but it is reality and hopefully it empowers you to be able to plan for a hunt that is attainable. If you ever decide to pick up the bow, you have your pick. You can have any archery elk tag you would like. If you are open o a ML hunt, there are a few that you could make the bonus pass for. Even one or two rifle bull hunts could work out, but in reality its not likely. Its tough but its true.

Sorry guys I have been pretty tied up with other things the past few weeks. Hope everyone got what they needed. Remember if you are posting a question I am happy to run odds but please try to be specific. Asking which hunt to apply for with 1 BP will not get you a very good answer. tell me what you are thinking and I will be happy to give some feedback. Also please remember to include: Unit, Bull/Cow, Season, Weapon and Bonus Point total, or if possible 2013 hunt numbers make it really easy. Good luck everyone.

1%, 3% 1% Less than 3% on both accounts 15%, 12%

2% on elk, 1% Goat

Not sure of your BP but those hunts aren't real tough to get. If you have more than 2 BP you would be a lock for the muzzy tag. More than 3 for the archery tag would do the trick. Even in the 1-2 pass with just one or two points your odds are still very high of drawing one or the other. 11 BP will give you your pick of any archery hunt except 9, 10, or 23 (North or South), no need to settle for a late rifle tag. Many of those can be drawn with just 3 or 4 bp. 3A Rifle Antelope 6 BP - 1% 23N Early Rifle Bull w/14 bp - 2% (Its sad, but its true.) 3A Rifle Antelope w/18 bp - 4% 20 is the bonus pass Bull - <1% Early Cow - 30% Late Cow - 100% 3 for both 21%, 15% last year but be careful they slashed tags in this unit for 2014, 21%, 15%, 18% In reality 0. these units will hit the NR cap in the bonus pass and for these hunts that is 18. With the disproportionate number of NR w/max points, you could be waiting a long time to catch them. You may need to consider choosing another weapon or hunting out of the rut.

On my PC. I have to develop the spreadsheets from raw data provided by AZGFD. 1% for unit 1. If 3A is anywhere other than one of your first two choices your odds are 0%. I would do 10 first choice and 22 second choice. With the upside down dispersal of NR to R max point holders and very low tag numbers in other units it could still be several years before you draw 23 or 9. Unless you have a lifetime license, in which case your tag is not limited to the NR pool. If thats the case It would might make sense to keep trying for the other units. What missedagain said is correct. Only your first two choices are considered for the bonus pass. 9% - 7W took 9 to make the bonus pass and 37% 5BS 8 was the last point level considered and 46 guys were competing for 11 bonus pass tags.

Which river? I lived in Hood River and Vancouver, WA.

What Couse said may be correct. Were you looking at early or late hunts? Last years hunt numbers would help a bunch.

4% (In reality probably 0% as a NR), 14% for you 23% for Dad 6A - 21%, 7E 19% Regardless of whose name is on the app, 6B is 16% About 16% last year 10 made the bonus pass, but this year it will creep with 50 fewer permits. 17%, 11% when thinking about antelope 80% of the tags go to some random lucky dude so in the words of Lloyd Christmas "So you're saying there's a chance!!!" I haven't run the deer odds yet but for either of the 13's you better have max (17) or get real lucky. Those are as hard to draw as sheep tags. 5%, 22% 1%, 13%

36%, 43%, 21%, 33% In that range, 11M gives you about the best chance to draw and the elk don't get hunted for 4 months straight so I like 11M as opposed to conventional units. Tag numbers have been on the rise in 6B and that may have some impact on age class. With 8 BP he will have a good shot at 5BS so hopefully 2nd choice is a moot point. All the units named would offer 100% odds for him so be careful putting as a second choice if you really want to hunt 5BS. Another to consider is 5A, same habitat as 5BS + you can hunt junipers and a lot fewer tags. he is 100% on that one as well. With 13 lope points just pick a rifle hunt and put in, the odds are terrible for all of them. 5%, 3%