Flatlander

4% (In reality probably 0% as a NR), 14% for you 23% for Dad 6A - 21%, 7E 19% Regardless of whose name is on the app, 6B is 16% About 16% last year 10 made the bonus pass, but this year it will creep with 50 fewer permits. 17%, 11% when thinking about antelope 80% of the tags go to some random lucky dude so in the words of Lloyd Christmas "So you're saying there's a chance!!!" I haven't run the deer odds yet but for either of the 13's you better have max (17) or get real lucky. Those are as hard to draw as sheep tags. 5%, 22% 1%, 13%

36%, 43%, 21%, 33% In that range, 11M gives you about the best chance to draw and the elk don't get hunted for 4 months straight so I like 11M as opposed to conventional units. Tag numbers have been on the rise in 6B and that may have some impact on age class. With 8 BP he will have a good shot at 5BS so hopefully 2nd choice is a moot point. All the units named would offer 100% odds for him so be careful putting as a second choice if you really want to hunt 5BS. Another to consider is 5A, same habitat as 5BS + you can hunt junipers and a lot fewer tags. he is 100% on that one as well. With 13 lope points just pick a rifle hunt and put in, the odds are terrible for all of them. 5%, 3%

Critter do you know what the Bill of rights is? It doesn't guarantee you can say whatever you want wherever you want. It just guarantees the Government can't inhibit that right. What happens on private property or a private forum is not subject to the 1st Amendment. The 1st Amendment really isn't relevant to this topic. Personally I think if people want to cry about AZGFD that they should start a thread for it. Like BC777 did RE: The Officer whose elk was illegally tagged a while back. Then it's in a spot where everyone can choose to read it or not read it. These same old debates are getting old. I think I am done for a while.

Coming from a guy with a brand new little girl at home I will tell you that they change you in a hurry. Staying up all night with her in the hospital changed me as a father. It's a great thing! Congrats on the greatest thing that will ever happen to you! You are going to be awesome.

Bump for sweet glass. I love my Gold ring binos. Better than SLC for a way better price.

Clean out your inbox! You can not receive messages. Dude it's all the people asking for draw odds. I can't clean it out fast enough so I gave up.

I like it Tony. The point isn't that what some folks say doesn't have any merit. It's that they hijack every other thread to do it. I actually have a feeling that Lance may have some background to justify all that bitterness but it's just not needed in threads about Javelina harvests etc

Once again Seldom Drawn has hijacked a thread by expressing an ignorant opinion based upon speculation. . . What's new? And what should make either of those guys feel obligated to explain themselves to him? Congrats to all the successful hunters, apparently you are better than me. Still looking for mine.

Crazy buck, that doesn't really make any sense. NR are capped at 10% of the tags, and there are far more than 10% who apply. They will get $600 regardless. To clarify the 10% cap only applies to his tag, but if the cap has been met when your number is called the entire app would be rejected.

CouesHunter I had talked to Sherman and he was bringing me the binos but I really only need 2 pair. PM me and we can work something out.

I will do everyone's draw odds for free

Sherman, PM sent.

10% for you. For your wife look at some of the limited opp hunts. She probably won't be in the bonus but it would help increase her odds. Or, get her a bow.

16% 3% 20 Its difficult to differentiate non-resident vs resident with the info game and fish provides. Realistically the 10% NR max is likely being hit in those units during the bonus pass. He should be in that group so his odds are high, especially in 27 where it only took 9 for the bonus pass last year. You are there, if you put in together I would think that you would have a very good chance. 62% 100% as of last year. Should be similar this year. There is no early muzzy in 6A, 23 Late - 72% 100% If you have 24 bp you are the one and only person on Earth with that many and you can pick your tag. Good luck, and be sure to leave room in your schedule for a trip to the Grand Canyon State this year. Post up some pics. 39%, 20% 8%, 18% (1st hunt), 24% (2nd Hunt), 43%

Probably not unit 1 as 12 guys from last year were not drawn in the bonus pass. Unit 3A should make the bonus pass, but there will be more in that group than there are bonus pass tags available. 6 made the bonus pass on both last year. It may not get you 100% odds on 6A but should be good enough for 6B. Make sure that 6A is your first choice. Last year 19 was good enough for a tag. If you were one of the 10 guys with 18 pts who put in for it, you just missed out. Antelope 2%, 1% Elk 8%, 26% (1st late hunt), 36% (2nd late hunt), Realistically . . . No. But keep applying because 80% of the tags go to some lucky gomer who scores a golden ticket. Elk 15%, 14% Antelope I would suggest you look at some of the archery hunts. On 21, 18B, 6B North and 3B South you would be close.

Going to be tough to draw an early cow tag on 3rd choice. Maybe a limited opp. or the peaks. Those early cow hunts are pretty popular.

Never done it because I always have a conflict. It's a really popular race and it will be pretty much shoulder to shoulder the whole way. It's a well organized event and for a great cause.

You just missed a step. Each applicant receives a random number for their application and each of their bonus points. The lowest number is then kept. So you have to multiply each applicant by their number of points +1.

Unfortunately Tom did not harvest a ram. I don't think he has really posted anything anywhere since the hunt.

Maybe. Last year this was the breaking point. Everyone with 9 got a tag but I would expect some creep this year, your odds are probably 50/50. This hunt has gotten a lot harder to draw in recent years and on top of that they issued like 4 million tags in 22 last year (not early archery, just all the other hunts).

Bitter - If you are looking to hunt bulls sooner than later look at the late hunts. There are some with very high success (see the regs after all the notes) and it really doesn't take long to draw most of them. The reality is this, if you want to hunt bulls in the rut with a rifle, thats a once in a lifetime deal. With a bow it can be done ever 4-8 years. Some folks will get lucky and beat those odds but most will not. Many November hunts can be drawn every 2 or 3 years. You can also look at the limited opportunity hunts for even better odds. Opportunity to hunt elk in AZ abounds, there is something for everybody. I really believe that whatever you want is here. We have a great system so don't get hung up on shooting a bugling bull with a rifle. If you hunt bulls in November ever couple of years you will get better and better at it until you are killing great bulls. And having a full freezer and great times along the way. Good luck my friend and welcome to the oldest sport on Earth.

Call G&F

Less than 1% on all accounts. If you are interested i getting into hunting I would suggest applying for some of the early rifle cow hunts. ITs a great experience with elk bugling and plenty of opportunity. I grew up on those hunts and they are some of my favorite memories. Took my wife and kids on one last year and we had a hoot. She drew without a single point. Good luck and welcome to the sport.

Archery antelope 10 points 18a, 18b and 10. Thank you for the help. 10%, 9%, 14% Just a year or two off the bonus pass in those. 12AB Since you asked my opinion I will give it to you. Don't put your wife or daughter in for late archery tags. It will suck the fun right out of it for them unless they are serious archers. As far as your overall percentages, with that many applications you should draw a tag. It will almost certainly be at least 18 to make the bonus pass. Somewhere between 0 and 100 depending on which hunt and how many bonus points you have. 13%, 6% 5, 9 It was enough last year, depending on where the max point holders apply I would think there is a very good chance she would draw the tag. Good luck and post pics. Dill - I understand that the reality of the scarcity of quality elk tags in this state is overwhelming, we all have to have a coping mechanism. If yours is pretending you have a 50/50 chance of drawing every year, good for you. The reality is much, much more bleak. Khmer - I have thought about using google docs I just have to decide if I want to post this where someone can reverse engineer it. Althouh I give away the results for free, I do consider the equations themselves to be an intellectual property and may want to use them some other way in the future. Who knows, maybe an application service or draw publication.

That'll learn ya