Flatlander

Hence the hours upon hours sitting at my computer building spreadsheets . . . Essentially I gleen the info from the Bonus Pass Report data entry every hunt and run a custom formula for every one. That's probably the most Info I will disclose.

My boys are turning 4 and 5 this August and they would really like bows that they can shoot with Daddy. I know there is a bunch of different bows for youngsters and I have seen guys post pics of their little ones shooting, so what bow should I get them started with? I see Bear Scout at like Sportsman's and Bass Pro has anybody used one?

Hey Redman remember that time CTG dropped 58 on your loser Wildcats with that borrowed headset? Yeah, me too. BTW I was there last night, how was your trip to New Orleans?

I still disagree. The 1-2 pass shows how the chips fell last year, but does not predict how they will fall next year. The bonus pass by hunt number gives all the necessary info to provide you with a peak into what your odds for this year are. The number of applicants by bonus point group once totalled tells you how many numbers are issued, subtract out those who drew in the bonus pass and voila! If the 1-2 pass report was an indicator of the likelihood of future success there would be a linear relationship between the # of bonus points and the % drawn, which there is not, because the draw is random and there for unpredictable.

Doug - sorry to derail your post but I wouldn't use that report to calculate odds. What that report shows is how many people with your bonus point total drew tags in the 1-2 pass but that is not a reliable indicator of what will happen this year. For example - if last year 50 people with 4 BP applied for an antelope tag, and 2 of those people were on one app and drew the tag, the report would say that the percent drawn was 8%, but those people got lucky and drew a really low random number, but the probability of that happening is far less than 8%. To get accurate results you need to use the Report that shows the Bonus Pass by hunt number.

You would be close to the bonus pass but I think some of the guys that had that tag last year (speedygoss) would say it was pretty tough. With that many pts you are right there for 3b and 3a/3c. Both are solid every single year. 22 has really become a cash cow for AZGFD, there were a TON of tags in there last year when you look at all the hunts.

Less than 3%

Your pitch may be somewhat improved by the addition of a size . . .

According to Hunter's Trailhead you've got a 33% chance to draw the 7 tag. 5B max pts is 23 and at 21 you were at about 3% In other news I wish I had 21 points. I actually think your odds in 5B are less than 3% but we are basically in agreement. You are right on the brink of being guaranteed that 7 tag.

You can go look at gunbroker.com and see what they are going for.

Hahaha kind if figured that would happen. Great intentions, good for you.

For the early rifle hunt in 9 I would think that this year it will take 19 pts to be 100% in the bonus pass. With 17 pts your odds are still single digits. At 13 pts they are a little less.

Hunters trailhead is a great investment. And sorry airmark, but I disagree, being informed is never a bad decision. But congrats on your good fortune.

Archery or rifle?

Fingers crossed

That was awesome

I wouldn't let Bear Mountain wax my string

Awesome! I love shooting geese. . .

Buy an infinite edge and never buy another bow again. I got mine from Desert Archery in Holbrook. They take phone orders and can ship.

Kenny - at 4 BP you would have had 15% chance on the first hunt and 18% on the second. Last year that was 1 bp away from the bonus pass, but there was a crowd at 5 BP so that would have only increased your odds marginally. Regardless, in one of the next 3 draws you would in all likelihood receive a tag. Go for it. Worst case scenario is three years. Airmark - No offense taken. I will wait out my time and draw a good tag, I knew the odds when I started this process. If not this year, then for sure next year. I have one tag and one tag only in mind and I will patiently wait for that tag. Joe - Airmark is exactly right, if you want to hunt elk every year in AZ there is no reason you can't. Even without buying an OTC tag there are several hunts that are 100% draw. Some are bull tags, you just can't expect to have in the rut, pine tree habitat with bulls behind every tree. But it can be done and an elk can be killed every single year, just ask TJ. Coues Assasin - When I said 0 I was assuming you were referring to early, bull ML tags. I haven't finished all the ML spreadsheets yet, but I would think that there would be one or two of the late cow hunts you are knocking on the door of the bonus pass for. I think I am going to try and post up my odds on a website this year so people don't have to wait for me to get back to them like they did last year. I love this time of year, honestly the draw is just as exciting as hunting for me. Everyone has hopes and dreams . . .and then for 8 straight years you get that stupid recording.

With 4BP what are your chances with muzzle loader of making the bonus pass? 0

I have the fiberglass on the same tent and haven't had any trouble. The biggest difference is the weight, and this is definitely not a backpacking tent so I haven't worried about it. The tent is bullet proof, I have been amazed at how it will hold up in the wind. I love mine.

That is how 80% of the tags are drawn, so it is very likely that you could draw the hunt you want before ever hitting the bonus pass. But with the bonus pass, you know there is an end to your suffering. Airmark, congrats on your 23N bull, its a beauty. But as someone who has never once had an archery bull tag in this state, I hope you never draw a tag again in your life . . .

Time off and not a tag in my pocket bad combination

And so it begins . . . I worked all through the break and have all the odds worked up in spreadsheets for Antelope, Rifle Bull, Rifle Cow and Archery Bull. I will tell you this, with 4 BP you will not make the bonus pass on any early archery hunts. There are several late rifle tags that you would have very favorable odds for. There was a general point creep in nearly all early archery hunts last year and almost every unit required about 1 more BP to make the bonus pass than in 2012. With fewer than 6 BP you will need to get lucky to land a tag. Which is how 80% of tags are drawn, so it can happen.