Flatlander

Less than 3%

Your pitch may be somewhat improved by the addition of a size . . .

According to Hunter's Trailhead you've got a 33% chance to draw the 7 tag. 5B max pts is 23 and at 21 you were at about 3% In other news I wish I had 21 points. I actually think your odds in 5B are less than 3% but we are basically in agreement. You are right on the brink of being guaranteed that 7 tag.

You can go look at gunbroker.com and see what they are going for.

Hahaha kind if figured that would happen. Great intentions, good for you.

For the early rifle hunt in 9 I would think that this year it will take 19 pts to be 100% in the bonus pass. With 17 pts your odds are still single digits. At 13 pts they are a little less.

Hunters trailhead is a great investment. And sorry airmark, but I disagree, being informed is never a bad decision. But congrats on your good fortune.

Archery or rifle?

Fingers crossed

That was awesome

I wouldn't let Bear Mountain wax my string

Awesome! I love shooting geese. . .

Buy an infinite edge and never buy another bow again. I got mine from Desert Archery in Holbrook. They take phone orders and can ship.

Kenny - at 4 BP you would have had 15% chance on the first hunt and 18% on the second. Last year that was 1 bp away from the bonus pass, but there was a crowd at 5 BP so that would have only increased your odds marginally. Regardless, in one of the next 3 draws you would in all likelihood receive a tag. Go for it. Worst case scenario is three years. Airmark - No offense taken. I will wait out my time and draw a good tag, I knew the odds when I started this process. If not this year, then for sure next year. I have one tag and one tag only in mind and I will patiently wait for that tag. Joe - Airmark is exactly right, if you want to hunt elk every year in AZ there is no reason you can't. Even without buying an OTC tag there are several hunts that are 100% draw. Some are bull tags, you just can't expect to have in the rut, pine tree habitat with bulls behind every tree. But it can be done and an elk can be killed every single year, just ask TJ. Coues Assasin - When I said 0 I was assuming you were referring to early, bull ML tags. I haven't finished all the ML spreadsheets yet, but I would think that there would be one or two of the late cow hunts you are knocking on the door of the bonus pass for. I think I am going to try and post up my odds on a website this year so people don't have to wait for me to get back to them like they did last year. I love this time of year, honestly the draw is just as exciting as hunting for me. Everyone has hopes and dreams . . .and then for 8 straight years you get that stupid recording.

With 4BP what are your chances with muzzle loader of making the bonus pass? 0

I have the fiberglass on the same tent and haven't had any trouble. The biggest difference is the weight, and this is definitely not a backpacking tent so I haven't worried about it. The tent is bullet proof, I have been amazed at how it will hold up in the wind. I love mine.

That is how 80% of the tags are drawn, so it is very likely that you could draw the hunt you want before ever hitting the bonus pass. But with the bonus pass, you know there is an end to your suffering. Airmark, congrats on your 23N bull, its a beauty. But as someone who has never once had an archery bull tag in this state, I hope you never draw a tag again in your life . . .

Time off and not a tag in my pocket bad combination

And so it begins . . . I worked all through the break and have all the odds worked up in spreadsheets for Antelope, Rifle Bull, Rifle Cow and Archery Bull. I will tell you this, with 4 BP you will not make the bonus pass on any early archery hunts. There are several late rifle tags that you would have very favorable odds for. There was a general point creep in nearly all early archery hunts last year and almost every unit required about 1 more BP to make the bonus pass than in 2012. With fewer than 6 BP you will need to get lucky to land a tag. Which is how 80% of tags are drawn, so it can happen.

DROPTINE! That's the holy grail right there. Good job Cole. Now you spoiled the youngster for life.

Congrats to the young man. Good job Dad.

I may get drawn and quartered for saying this but I'm a glutton for punishment so what the heck. Phil 100% had the right to say what he did (and I agree with him btw). And A&E 100% had the right to fire him. And he has the right to go somewhere else. I would make the same argument for a small business owner who wanted to fire someone for whatever reason they so chose.

KHMER the reason we do that is so that after 6 or 7 blown stalks we can go fling an arrow at a pig and get our spirits back up.

The white hots are great. I have been keeping it to 100 grain because as Coach pointed out its a lot tougher to get the groups tight, it may have something to do with all that smoke and the way I flinch like a step child in K Mart. Even with a 295 gr PB in there 100 gr seems to be plenty. I keep my shots to 150 yds, not that it helps. I still can't hit anything that breathes.

Hey Keith hit me up if you have any questions, I've spent some time out that way.