Flatlander

I was refering to the police shooting the civilians. I have seen nothing reported about that other than the LA Times article previously posted.

Thats not even a Titan. I literally have seen nothing on this.

3A/3C - 10% 5BS - 14% (Bonus pass was 8 pts last year) 7W - 17% 8 - 20% 23 - 20% Late Rifle 4B - 100% Late Rifle 5B - 100% Shouldn't matter solo or double with 7 bo you are deep into the bonus pass. 9 - 100% 23N - 6% Last year the bonus pass tags went to applicants with 17, 15 and 14 points. There were 5 applicants with 14 points so assuming the other 4 did not draw other hunts and apply for the same hunt this year you would still be on the outside looking in because only 3 tags are given in the bonus pass. Additionally there were 4 guys with 13 points last year. So with all this being said you can have 9 this year, but 23N could take a couple more years to reach via the bonus pass. I anticipate seeing point creep in 23N for a while because so few tags are issued. Ok guys I think I got everyone what they needed. I hope everyone was aware that these are my own statistics, not from Hunter's Trailhead. I build my own spreadsheets and calculate my own odds. They have traditionally been very close to what I have read on HT, but our methodology does differ. Good luck to everyone in the draw!

It took 14 to make the bonus pass on archery and 19 for rifle last year

Nice catch. Corrected.

Not sure if you are still following this thread hopefully you haven't already filled out your app. Unit 10 would be at best a 50/50 shot for you this year especially if you have 2 applicants on one app. Last year the Bonus pass extended to the 10 BP group, but only 3 of those drew. That means that 36 tags had already been distributed and the NR cap (19) likely met. If you would like a tag this year I would recommend 3B, 7W, or 8. I would say each of these still have a reasonable # of tags for the size of the unit, and should provide ample room to spread out. I also like that if the rut is not in full swing these units are very glass-able, with lots of juniper country. Units 7W and 8 border unit 9 but don't get near as much attention. Unit 3B borders unit 1. With 11 NR points any of these 3 should be a lock. Good luck and let us know what you decide.

You are on your own there buddy. I did my time. 9 Archery - 4%, I don't have data on muzzy but it will be worse. 8 Archery - 9 points got you a tag last year

Unit 1 - 5% Unit 8 - 8%

I would kill that bull in a heartbeat. Seems like a no brainer unless I am hunting the White Mountain.

3A/3C Jr. 1 BP - 6% Not sure which 5BN hunt you need results for. 17%

This is a smokin deal on an all time great bow.

Which 5BN hunt?

With an increase of over 100 tags this year there will be 5 additional tags available in the Bonus Pass. I would say you are a lock. Good luck, I wish I was in your shoes, but with 6 bp its gunna be a roll of the dice for me. No problem. To be honest I really enjoy building the spreadsheets and figuring the #'s. I am an estimator by profession and what can I say, I'm a nerd.

You do know that Ray Lewis has a ring already, right.

I am totally geeked up about this. Its a little embarrassing. I am excited that my boys are excited.

12 BP did it for a resident in Unit 1 archery. It took 7 points for 6A archery. With 4 points I would guess you are still in the 12-15% chance range. 9 Points did it for either of the 6A rifle hunts last year (mid or late) they no longer divide 6A into S and W. Unit 4B took 15 BP to make the bonus pass. With 9 points you are probably <10%.

Niners all the way baby!!! I was 12 years old the last time I was this excited about the Super Bowl.

Awesome buck. Congrats on an incredible accomplishment.

Hang it up. It will hold up better. What's the length on that bear?

4.7% (4B), and 9.3% (27) Thanks! Man, I'm surprised the odds of drawing a rifle cow tag, although it is a early one is so low! Drawing an early cow tag and drawing a late rifle bull tag are actually pretty similar. Usually 3-4 bp get you in the mix.

Any other CWT members running this race?

Unit 27 took 18 to get in the bonus pass. Unit 1 didn't have an early hunt but should be similar. Last year 14 points got you an early muzzy tag in 3B.

So worth the $25, especially if you apply in multiple states. I have been able to come to the same odds they have for the past several years in AZ, so if you would like some info for here let me know and I am happy to help.

I need to have more years with "limited tags" in three states and one foreign country. Congrats on a lot of fun and good luck in Mexico.

9 Residents points in AZ gets you these options for bull elk: 1) A single digit chance at an early rifle hunt 2) Any late rifle tag 3) Guaranteed draw of most the "moderate" archery hunts ie 5A, 4A, 6A (4B archery included) 4) Units like 7W, 8, and 1 are likely still 1-2 years out of reach 5) Units like 9 and 23 are still several years out of reach That said in AZ, you can draw any tag on any given year, so you always have a chance. When I say tags are "out of reach" I mean that you still have x number of years before your reach the bonus pass and your probability of drawing multiplies significantly. Good luck and let us know what you decide.