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varnco

Points Question

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2 hours ago, varnco said:

I am probably running headfirst into a buzz saw, but according to their site:

https://www.gohunt.com/insider/draw-odds

DRAW ODDS

The most accurate draw odds ever.

Our data scientists and hunters have combined proprietary formulas and state data to reveal your true chance to draw hunts in the West.

It is just an estimate. Usually hunt odds dont change super drastically from year to year unless it's when a newer hunt gets noticed. It does help a lot though! Especially when it comes to an APP strategy! Just paints a picture on what you ca  roughly expect! They are still extremely accurate though! That .2% of a chance difference from each site doesnt matter a whole ton anyways. Your name is still put into the hat anyways!

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Ron Wold is the only guy I've seen that does true predictive odds based on year/year accumulated data but he only does Oregon. Gohunt and Toprut do run simulations for several states and the trend line Gohunt uses can be a predictor of sorts and seems to work pretty well. Toprut shows the individual point pools for hunts so you can see where you are vs the Gohunt trend line. 

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