I would look at 3a3c for early archery(83% draw odds) or 23 late rifle(100% draw odds). If I were to have one AZ elk hunt, I would want to experience the rut, but that is if you feel confident with a bow. That 23 late rifle hunt can be some tough terrain but some great bulls.
3a3c archery jumped a couple points last year due to archery having the later dates but I would bet you would be in the bonus pass this year.
Good luck in the draw!