fisher_hunt Report post Posted June 10, 2013 Was wondering if anybody knows the odds for drawing a tag as a third choice for a hunt that had a 90% draw odd for first and second choice apps? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Outdoor Writer Report post Posted June 10, 2013 Was wondering if anybody knows the odds for drawing a tag as a third choice for a hunt that had a 90% draw odd for first and second choice apps? If it had 90% for the 1-2 pass, that means only 90% of those who applied for 1-2 got permits. It would be 100% if every 1-2 applicant got them. So it's not likely to see any permits even go to the next 3rd-choice draw level, which is a reshuffle of assigned numbers and AN0THER separate one draw for the 3-4-5 choices. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
fisher_hunt Report post Posted June 10, 2013 Well if that's true then only hunts that are 100% draw would have tags that would go to the second round (3-5 pass). However I know my dad has drawn a third choice hunt in the past that had 90% some draw odd. I'm sure there is some other factors to take into account that allows for this. But overall if I wanted to almost guarantee the tag, I should choose it for my second choice. If I wanted to roll the dice I can try third choice. Decisions, decision, decisions. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Outdoor Writer Report post Posted June 11, 2013 Well if that's true then only hunts that are 100% draw would have tags that would go to the second round (3-5 pass). However I know my dad has drawn a third choice hunt in the past that had 90% some draw odd. I'm sure there is some other factors to take into account that allows for this. But overall if I wanted to almost guarantee the tag, I should choose it for my second choice. If I wanted to roll the dice I can try third choice. Decisions, decision, decisions. That's often the case. 90% draw odds means o;ly 9 out of 10 applicants get their first or second choice. So that shows tha NO permits are left for the 10% that missed out or for the last 3-5 go-'round. Your last comment is a dead-on "bingo." Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
654321 Report post Posted June 11, 2013 Was wondering if anybody knows the odds for drawing a tag as a third choice for a hunt that had a 90% draw odd for first and second choice apps? If it had 90% for the 1-2 pass, that means only 90% of those who applied for 1-2 got permits. It would be 100% if every 1-2 applicant got them. So it's not likely to see any permits even go to the next 3rd-choice draw level, which is a reshuffle of assigned numbers and AN0THER separate one draw for the 3-4-5 choices. I would like to know how last year for the 36B 10-26-11-1 hunt had 800 tags, 631 1st &2nd choice yet only 87% draw odds seems to me it should be 100% I know for a fact there were leftovers for that hunt Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DesertBull Report post Posted June 11, 2013 Because some of those that listed 36b as their 2nd choice but were drawn for their first choice Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mpriest Report post Posted June 17, 2013 You could potentially draw it but it is unlikely. My dad last year drew a cow tag on his fourth choice that only a a 70% draw odds that year Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
