Return of the Soviet Union

[BeardownAZ]

Any thoughts on the current Russia-Ukraine conflict going on? I really cant say I'm suprised. I think anybody who sees the direction we are going and the directions the Russians(Putin) want to go is very different. Putin being an ex KGB colonel wants nothing more than to see them as a world superpower again opposite of us. I believe right now, our current administration and society in general is handing it to him to do just that. Obama can flap his jaw all he wants about sanctions but Putin isnt scared of us. Alot arent anymore. Besides whats the UN gonna do if we get them involved? They allowed countries like Russia in and they have veto power on top of it so it pointless, as the UN always has been. Just think we may be watching an attempt or actual resurrgence of the old Soviet Union.

[mattys281]

Bottom line will be money and there is already enough western powers threatening to cut ties with them over this that he will back down. Plus I dont believe that many of the Ukrainian people are interested in rejoining the ussr, although this sentiment varies regionally and by age group. There are many pensioners who miss the glory days of being a super power but the younger generation just wants a stable economy and Putin is not the answer for that.

[BeardownAZ]

What western powers will have enough influence? I hope your right but I dont think being "western" carries the stock it used to. Its not like they need us for oil and those type of resources, Venezuela and the likes also back them up so they're good there. We dont export like we used to so I guess maybe we could import less and hurt them there?? Like cheap steel cased Russian ammo . That would suck! From what I understand, its pretty split in the Ukraine between people wanting to be influenced by either Russia or Europe. Which is what suprised me the most. I would of thought it wouldnt be close considering they broke away from the USSR. I see us stomping our feet and yelling and thats about it. Kinda like when they rolled over Georgia and Bush did nothing really.

[BeardownAZ]

I doubt anything happens out of this other than Putin getting strategic ports from the Ukraine under his terms. Which I believe is part of this little rumbling. The worlds countries don't object to him enough to make any difference. Not enough united. Yeah some sanctions will probably happen but it won't deter him enough to not get just enough of what he wants.

[Guest wdenike]

I doubt anything happens out of this other than Putin getting strategic ports from the Ukraine under his terms. Which I believe is part of this little rumbling. The worlds countries don't object to him enough to make any difference. Not enough united. Yeah some sanctions will probably happen but it won't deter him enough to not get just enough of what he wants.

 

 

 

 

Bear,

 

 

I hear ya. A lot like here in the states. Apparently we all don't object to the clowns we have running our dog and pony show to make a difference either. LMAO

 

 

 

 

 

Snap,

 

 

I'm sure there will be more activity on the YOU MIGHT BE A D-BAG and WHAT ABOUT GLASSING ETIQUITE!!! LMAO Haven't figured if it is just simple things for simple minds or a healthy dose of IDGAS. ( Also known as MY PIECE OF SKY IS JUST FINE STILL.)

 

But the politicians better figure out in a hurry that they better quit worrying about queers rights, and religion. And start governing!! All though we have all these freedoms. They are not there to pick winners and losers. They are there to see to it that the country is run in the black not red.

 

And they better figure out in a hurry. That there are next to no ship yards, no steel mills, and an administration trying to kill the coal industry, and no manufacturing to speak of. Also even if there was an emergency, and we had to come up with these type of jobs. We would have to put a gun to fifty percent of the population and make them work. Because the have figured it is easier to vote for a living than work.

 

Maybe the clowns in charge think they will just continue to get steel, and manufactured parts from China. As I am sure it has never occurred to the moron politicians that China, North Korea, and Iran, Just might throw in with the Bear. Or I guess OBUMMER has possibly spread so much love that they will have our back. NOT LMAO One thing for sure we as a people better start worrying about more than just the piece of sky over their head.

 

 

Take care, Willie

[mattys281]

I doubt anything happens out of this other than Putin getting strategic ports from the Ukraine under his terms. Which I believe is part of this little rumbling. The worlds countries don't object to him enough to make any difference. Not enough united. Yeah some sanctions will probably happen but it won't deter him enough to not get just enough of what he wants.

 

Ukraine already leases them the naval port in the Crimea, which is what I think this move was all about any way. They just wanted to send a message to the interim government & it's western supporters to not mess with their base. My wife is Ukranian & my inlaws live over there in Chekassy region, about 200 km east of Kiev. They usually spend summer holidays at the beach in Crimea. According to them, the region is largely pro russian & much of the rest of Ukraine wouldn't care if they did take it back. Apparently several years ago Russia issued Russian passports to all residents of Crimea that wanted it, effectively making them duel citizens or residents or whatever. Putin is pretty savy. I don't believe he would do anythig that would net him long term consequences, he just likes to push a little to show Obama that he's calling the shots over there and he isn't worried. That's the way it's been forever anyway. Russia's last president, Dmitry Medvedev, was nothing more than a puppet whom's strings were firmly in Putin's hands the entire time.

[Guest wdenike]

" Putin is pretty savy "

 

 

 

So was HITTLER and many that think just like him. There are all different angles to accomplish goals. Also starting with the children, and education institutes is very cunning. Sound familiar?? If we don't take the time to know what our children are being taught, and teach them the truth. In a few more generations. Our constitution will just be some piece of toilet paper that some stupid senile old farts that didn't have a clue dreamed up!! Matter of fact the disgrace occupying the white house already thinks that time is upon us.

 

 

Take care , Willie

[Pine Donkey]

 

A good read......

Ukraine and the 'Little Cold War'

 

Geopolitical Weekly

Tuesday, March 4, 2014 - 03:09 Print Text Size

 

Stratfor

Editor's Note: In place of George Friedman's regular Geopolitical Weekly, this column is derived from two chapters of Friedman's 2009 book, The Next 100 Years. We are running this abstract of the chapters that focused on Eastern Europe and Russia because the forecast -- written in 2008 -- is prescient in its anticipation of events unfolding today in Russia, Ukraine and Crimea.

By George Friedman

We must consider the future of Eurasia after the fall of the Soviet Union. Since 1991, the region has fragmented and decayed. The successor state to the Soviet Union, Russia, is emerging from this period with renewed self-confidence. Yet Russia is also in an untenable geopolitical position. Unless Russia exerts itself to create a sphere of influence, the Russian Federation could itself fragment.

For most of the second half of the 20th century, the Soviet Union controlled Eurasia -- from central Germany to the Pacific, as far south as the Caucasus and the Hindu Kush. When the Soviet Union collapsed, its western frontier moved east nearly 1,000 miles, from the West German border to the Russian border with Belarus. Russian power has now retreated farther east than it has been in centuries. During the Cold War it had moved farther west than ever before. In the coming decades, Russian power will settle somewhere between those two lines.

After the Soviet Union dissolved at the end of the 20th century, foreign powers moved in to take advantage of Russia's economy, creating an era of chaos and poverty. Most significantly, Ukraine moved into an alignment with the United States and away from Russia -- this was a breaking point in Russian history.

The Orange Revolution in Ukraine, from December 2004 to January 2005, was the moment when the post-Cold War world genuinely ended for Russia. The Russians saw the events in Ukraine as an attempt by the United States to draw Ukraine into NATO and thereby set the stage for Russian disintegration. Quite frankly, there was some truth to the Russian perception.

If the West had succeeded in dominating Ukraine, Russia would have become indefensible. The southern border with Belarus, as well as the southwestern frontier of Russia, would have been wide open.

Russia's Resurgence

 

After what Russia regarded as an American attempt to further damage it, Moscow reverted to a strategy of reasserting its sphere of influence in the areas of the former Soviet Union. The great retreat of Russian power ended in Ukraine. For the next generation, until roughly 2020, Russia's primary concern will be reconstructing the Russian state and reasserting Russian power in the region.

Interestingly, the geopolitical shift is aligning with an economic shift. Vladimir Putin sees Russia less as an industrial power than as an exporter of raw materials, the most important of which is energy (particularly natural gas). He is transforming Russia from an impoverished disaster into a poor but more productive country. Putin also is giving Russia the tool with which to intimidate Europe: the valve on a natural gas pipeline.

But the real flash point, in all likelihood, will be on Russia's western frontier. Belarus will align itself with Russia. Of all the countries in the former Soviet Union, Belarus has had the fewest economic and political reforms and has been the most interested in recreating some successor to the Soviet Union. Linked in some way to Russia, Belarus will bring Russian power back to the borders of the former Soviet Union.

From the Baltics south to the Romanian border there is a region where borders have historically been uncertain and conflict frequent. In the north, there is a long, narrow plain, stretching from the Pyrenees to St. Petersburg. This is where Europe's greatest wars were fought. This is the path that Napoleon and Hitler took to invade Russia. There are few natural barriers. Therefore, the Russians must push their border west as far as possible to create a buffer. After World War II, they drove into the center of Germany on this plain. Today, they have retreated to the east. They have to return, and move as far west as possible. That means the Baltic states and Poland are, as before, problems Russia has to solve.

Defining the limits of Russian influence will be controversial. The United States -- and the countries within the old Soviet sphere -- will not want Russia to go too far.

Russia will not become a global power in the next decade, but it has no choice but to become a major regional power. And that means it will clash with Europe. The Russian-European frontier remains a fault line.

It is unreasonable to talk of Europe as if it were one entity. It is not, in spite of the existence of the European Union. Europe consists of a series of sovereign and contentious nation-states.

In short, post-Cold War Europe is in benign chaos. Russia is the immediate strategic threat to Europe. Russia is interested not in conquering Europe, but in reasserting its control over the former Soviet Union. From the Russian point of view, this is both a reasonable attempt to establish some minimal sphere of influence and essentially a defensive measure.

Obviously the Eastern Europeans want to prevent a Russian resurgence. The real question is what the rest of Europe might do -- and especially, what Germany might do. The Germans are now in a comfortable position with a buffer between them and the Russians, free to focus on their internal economic and social problems. In addition, the heritage of World War II weighs heavily on the Germans. They will not want to act alone, but as part of a unified Europe.

Russia is the eastern portion of Europe and has clashed with the rest of Europe on multiple occasions. Historically, though, Europeans who have invaded Russia have come to a disastrous end. If they are not beaten by the Russians, they are so exhausted from fighting them that someone else defeats them. Russia occasionally pushes its power westward, threatening Europe with the Russian masses. At other times passive and ignored, Russia is often taken advantage of. But, in due course, others pay for underestimating it.

Geographic Handicaps, Energy Assets

 

If we are going to understand Russia's behavior and intentions, we have to begin with Russia's fundamental weakness -- its borders, particularly in the northwest. On the North European Plain, no matter where Russia's borders are drawn, it is open to attack. There are few significant natural barriers anywhere on this plain. Pushing its western border all the way into Germany, as it did in 1945, still leaves Russia's frontiers without a physical anchor. The only physical advantage Russia can have is depth. The farther west into Europe its borders extend, the farther conquerors have to travel to reach Moscow. Therefore, Russia is always pressing westward on the North European Plain and Europe is always pressing eastward.

Europe is hungry for energy. Russia, constructing pipelines to feed natural gas to Europe, takes care of Europe's energy needs and its own economic problems, and puts Europe in a position of dependency on Russia. In an energy-hungry world, Russia's energy exports are like heroin. It addicts countries once they start using it. Russia has already used its natural gas resources to force neighboring countries to bend to its will. That power reaches into the heart of Europe, where the Germans and the former Soviet satellites of Eastern Europe all depend on Russian natural gas. Add to this its other resources, and Russia can apply significant pressure on Europe.

Dependency can be a double-edged sword. A militarily weak Russia cannot pressure its neighbors, because its neighbors might decide to make a grab for its wealth. So Russia must recover its military strength. Rich and weak is a bad position for nations to be in. If Russia is to be rich in natural resources and export them to Europe, it must be in a position to protect what it has and to shape the international environment in which it lives.

In the next decade, Russia will become increasingly wealthy (relative to its past, at least) but geographically insecure. It will therefore use some of its wealth to create a military force appropriate to protect its interests, buffer zones to protect it from the rest of the world -- and then buffer zones for the buffer zones. Russia's grand strategy involves the creation of deep buffers along the North European Plain, while it divides and manipulates its neighbors, creating a new regional balance of power in Europe. What Russia cannot tolerate are tight borders without buffer zones, and its neighbors united against it. This is why Russia's future actions will appear to be aggressive but will actually be defensive.

Russia's actions will unfold in three phases. In the first phase, Russia will be concerned with recovering influence and effective control in the former Soviet Union, re-creating the system of buffers that the Soviet Union provided it. In the second phase, Russia will seek to create a second tier of buffers beyond the boundaries of the former Soviet Union. It will try to do this without creating a solid wall of opposition, of the kind that choked it during the Cold War. In the third phase -- really something that will have been going on from the beginning -- Russia will try to prevent anti-Russian coalitions from forming.

If we think of the Soviet Union as a natural grouping of geographically isolated and economically handicapped countries, we can see what held it together. The countries that made up the Soviet Union were bound together of necessity. The former Soviet Union consisted of members who really had nowhere else to go. These old economic ties still dominate the region, except that Russia's new model, exporting energy, has made these countries even more dependent than they were previously. Attracted as Ukraine was to the rest of Europe, it could not compete or participate with Europe. Its natural economic relationship is with Russia; it relies on Russia for energy, and ultimately it tends to be militarily dominated by Russia as well.

These are the dynamics that Russia will take advantage of in order to reassert its sphere of influence. It will not necessarily recreate a formal political structure run from Moscow -- although that is not inconceivable. Far more important will be Russian influence in the region over the next five to 10 years.

The Russians will pull the Ukrainians into their alliance with Belarus and will have Russian forces all along the Polish border, and as far south as the Black Sea. This, I believe, will all take place by the mid-2010s.

There has been a great deal of talk in recent years about the weakness of the Russian army, talk that in the decade after the collapse of the Soviet Union was accurate. But here is the new reality -- that weakness started to reverse itself in 2000, and by 2015 it will be a thing of the past. The coming confrontation in northeastern Europe will not take place suddenly, but will be an extended confrontation. Russian military strength will have time to develop. The one area in which Russia continued research and development in the 1990s was in advanced military technologies. By 2010, it will certainly have the most effective army in the region. By 2015-2020, it will have a military that will pose a challenge to any power trying to project force into the region, even the United States.

 

[Guest wdenike]

Pine Donkey,

 

 

Good read, and I believe sadly spot on.

 

 

 

Take care, Willie

[DesertBull]

[BeardownAZ]

Pine Donkey's article was very interesting. Not hard to see some of it playing out right now without even getting into more intricate details.

[prowlerMan]

 

Hahaha!

[Diamondbackaz]

This is why>>>

 

http://thepeoplescube.com/peoples-blog/putin-vs-obama-pictorial-comparisons-t12846.html