The Draw System

[Red Rabbit]

For the Obamanites Hoping for Change:

 

There were about 80,000 hunters applying for 20,000 elk tags this year. That means 3 out of 4 didn’t get drawn; reality strikes. 75% of the elk hunters might feel a need to complain, but AZ does not have enough game to make everyone a tag-holder every year. Maybe once every 4 years if one would accept a cow tag or a tag in a less desirable unit.

 

Someone told me that he noticed that the lowest BP group in the 20% pass did not draw any tags in the regular draw. He figured that those people were not put back into the regular draw. According the draw instructions, after the 20% bonus pass, new random numbers are assigned for the regular draw. So I opened up the BP analysis for the 20% pass and regular draw to check. NOT TRUE. For most of the elk hunts, there were people in the lowest BP group of the 20% pass that did draw in the regular draw.

 

There were some hunts that people from the lowest group did not draw, but that was in the early rifle bull hunts and the harder to draw archery elk hunts. After the 20% pass, draw odds go down to abysmal chances and it is very conceivable that no one in a bonus group may get drawn for the few trophy tags.

 

Do we want to change the system?

 

3-YEAR WAITING PERIOD?

Using a 3 year waiting period instead won’t help you much. There were 2652 first choice and 1061 second choice applicants applying for the unit 9 archery bull hunt. Removing 300 people won't mean much as there would still be 2352 people left. (Note: numbers being used are from the 2008 draw)

 

For 6A rifle bull, 9500 people applied for the 950 tags. Removing people for 3 years would change you from 1 out of 10 applicants, to 1 out of 7. Better, but still only 14% instead of 10% straight chance. And then you are only removing people with the lowest number of BP and hence those with the fewest random numbers to compete against.

 

PREFERENCE POINT SYSTEM?

Back to unit 9 archery bull. Using a preference system for those 2652 first choice applicants would require 26 years at 100 permits a year to get to the bottom group. Wanna wait 27 years to hunt unit 9 again?

 

For unit 7W archery bull (less status than unit 9), there were 844 first choice applicants for the 150 permits. It would take 6 years to clear everyone out and for one to be drawn again.

 

For 6A rifle, there were 6,144 first choice applicants for the 950 permits. At 950 permits per year, it would be 7 years before all were drawn. Wanna wait 7 or 8 years before your next rifle bull hunt?

 

Your son turns 10 and you would like to get him hunting before he finds other activities to do and not gain a passion for hunting. “Well son, sorry but you can’t hunt till you turn at least 16…gotta wait your turn”.

 

Preference system for antelope or sheep??? You’ll be hunting from your grave or with one foot in it. Unit 7 has some of the better draw odds for rifle antelope. There were 756 first choice applicants for 50 permits…up to a 15 year wait. For unit 10 rifle antelope, 4571 first choice applicants for 60 permits…up to a 76 year wait.

 

The current bonus point system would be much better than any preference point system, in my opinion. At least one has a chance to draw every year. Much better than having NO chance for say 8 years. Is the current system perfect? Probably not. What do I think can be done to improve it? Increase the 20% bonus pass to 30 or 40%. This would clear out the top bonus point groups faster, help those who are continually unlucky in the draw, and still give a chance for those without max points. Do people without max points want a chance to draw? I would say so, judging by the clogged phone lines the past few days.

 

Complaints are heard when people do not draw for several years, but one must look at what hunts they have on their application for first and second choice. If one is holding out for a unit 9 or 10 archery bull hunt, then one would hope to see teeth marks on their lips. If one hears of people being drawn for 3 years in a row, congratulate them and then you also will likely find them drawing some cow hunts or bull hunts in LO units and they are willing to do their homeworkt to hunt these tougher units. But then I know a lucky guy who drew unit 9 archery bull 2 years in a row recently- glad for him, not steaming-mad jealous.

 

Doug~RR

[Switchback]

Red Rabbit, you are right I am not sure there is a way to make things better, I guess some people just have all the luck.....All I know is I am not going to lose all my bonus points for a cow hunt...guess we will give r heck again next year and hope to end the drought.. As long as someone in the family gets drawn thats all that matters....

[DubTee]

RR,

 

This may be a dumb question, however being fairly new to the draw process, I would love to better understand it. I guess I don't understand the 20% pass thing. The way I understand the draw is this, let's say unit 10 archery: 150 tags available, 15 are immediatly cut off the top for non-residents. 135 left: Something like 10% more off the top for top bonus point holders? If I'm correct on this so far, then 121/122 tags left for first and second choice applicants. You send in your application, a number is assigned to your app, the number of bonus points one has corresponds to how many times your app is in the hat. If the computer draws one of your numbers, they look at your first choice, if it's available you get the tag, if not they look at your second choice, available you draw, if not you are done until the process starts again for 3rd/4th/5th choice (hunts that were not filled during first/second choice round) if you applied for those. I may make no sense here, but just want to learn how to find my "real" odds when applying. Thanks.

[KGAINES]

I waited ten years for my first elk tag, after five years I decided that I wasn't putting in for any cow hunts, it sucked every year to hear not drawn, but once I did get drawn I apply according to the odds kind of. I don't mind hunting cow elk or limited opportunity hunts, and if I didn't get drawn I would possibly buy one of the over the counter elk tags, no matter what I get to hunt deer with my bow, and am guaranteed a tag in Oct. for coues. There may be a better system, but I don't have any great ideas to fix it. Thank you Doug for the info.

[30-378shtr]

Very well thought out post, Doug. Those are almost my exact thoughts as well. The draw system works. And i had to wait 10 years for my archery bull tag, but I knew that I would have to be in for the long haul if I wanted that hunt. If we want to change anything, why don't we look at GF messed up "hunter opportunity" strategies that are ruining our herds/hunts? Seriously, over 800 tags in some units all at one time! That's rediculous.

[30-378shtr]

Dubtee, you are close in your understanding but not quite there. The 10% NR rule does not take 10% right off the top. NR are in the same draw as everyone else and they don't automatically get 10%. This just caps the NR at 10%, and some years the 10% cap isn't even filled.

[Red Rabbit]

DubTee,

 

10% of the permits are not set aside for NR. 10% is the max they can draw- NR can draw a tag in the draw until 10% of the permits are reached. The 10% may be reached sometime in the 20% pass, during the regular 1-2 draw, or not at all if all permits are issued before 10% are drawn by NR.

 

In the 20% pass, 20% of the permits are drawn by those to those in the top BP group(s). After this draw, new randon numbers are issued, before the regular 1-2 pass, and the 3-4-5 pass.

 

Here is a description how the draw process works.

http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/BigGameDrawingProcess.shtml

 

description of bonus points vs preference points:

http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/BonusPointProcess.shtml

 

Here are the bonus point analysis reports for the elk & antelope draws, which are by hunt number for the 2008 hunts (last year's numbers).

The 20% bonus pass will give you and idea how many BP it will take to be drawn in the 20% pass.

http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/documents/b...08BonusPass.pdf

 

The 1-2 pass gives the chances for drawing for each bonus point group, and includes those drawn in the 20% bonus pass.

http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/documents/b.../1-2%20Pass.pdf

 

Here are the reports for the deer, which you should find useful before the June application deadline:

http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/pdfs/2008Bo...t-BonusPass.pdf

http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/pdfs/2008Bo...port1-2Pass.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

[coueshunter]

This is a volatile subject for some (myself included). Let me just start off with the AZGFD's philosophy of "Recruitment/Retention". I have a wife and two sons who want to hunt and it is hard to explain to them why they cant get a tag. I know for myself that I must wait for my premium tag but for them on regular hunts, it is hard to explain why they dont draw. This issue will never go away, there are much worse formats than AZGFD's...........I believe in the draw, but wonder at times the "randomness" of it all. There are always people drawing the premium units with 1-3 bonus points. Is it a far reach to ask the AZGFD to place some of the premium units "off limits" to non-residents? I know of a few states that manage in that way, and it would free up tags for the residents who understand waiting for premium tags. It is hard to swallow seeing a non-resident with two bonus points put in a party application and draw unit 1...............Allen..

[DubTee]

30-378/RR,

 

Thanks, that does help a bit, I get it with the non-residents now. Looking at those pass tables seems to give a truer sense of what is going on in realtion to how many bonus points one has. So, if I understand this, are 20% of the tags for a particular hunt drawn first, and only those with the top bonus points are considered for that pass?

[30-378shtr]

The first round of drawing is the bonus pass (top 20%). In this round, they take everyone and place them in decsending order by number of bonus points along with a random number. They simply go down the list. 20 pts - gets a tag. then 19,18, etc. Now, if more people have, let's say 12 pts, than there are number of tags (20% of the total) then they do a random draw only with those people with 12 points. hope that helps.

[DubTee]

30-378,

 

That does help, thank you. I take it that in the 20% pass, they are only taking first choices into consideration, is this correct? I promise, no more questions after this, thanks for your time.

[30-378shtr]

no, they look at both. if fact most people don't realize that they can kind of get screwed. If you put let's say unit 9 first and 8 second. you have 11 bonus points. Well, you're not in the max pool for 9 but you are for 8. you really never had a chance for 9 because you will get an 8 tag in the max point round. you basically waisted your first choice because you never had a chance for 9 in the second (random) round, because you already got a tag in the max. That is why it is critical to do your research and know where you sit.

[KGAINES]

I see a new topic in the future called the science of the draw, between 30-378shtr and Doug you guys have a handle on exactly how it works.

[DubTee]

I see a new topic in the future called the science of the draw, between 30-378shtr and Doug you guys have a handle on exactly how it works.

 

Yeah, and so far I am failing miserably, but getting there. 30, thanks again, it is becoming clearer now. Your unit 9/8 senario makes it clearer. How do I find out the cutoff for the 20% pass for a given unit, do I just count down the number of applicants from the highest bonus point group until I reach 20% of the tags and if the 20% runs out in a particular bonus group they randomly draw in that bonus group? One more thing, I guess I could see where the numbers in the second pass could fluctuate from year to year, but probably not by much, am I correct in assuming this?

[ultra 2]

This is a volatile subject for some (myself included). Let me just start off with the AZGFD's philosophy of "Recruitment/Retention". I have a wife and two sons who want to hunt and it is hard to explain to them why they cant get a tag. I know for myself that I must wait for my premium tag but for them on regular hunts, it is hard to explain why they dont draw. This issue will never go away, there are much worse formats than AZGFD's...........I believe in the draw, but wonder at times the "randomness" of it all. There are always people drawing the premium units with 1-3 bonus points. Is it a far reach to ask the AZGFD to place some of the premium units "off limits" to non-residents? I know of a few states that manage in that way, and it would free up tags for the residents who understand waiting for premium tags. It is hard to swallow seeing a non-resident with two bonus points put in a party application and draw unit 1...............Allen..

 

 

I understand your frustration having been a resident my entire life until 2006. But now as a non-resident, for the last 3 years I have put in each year and am now down $453.75 as I am required to buy a license just to put in. I can't see the AZGFD taking away the premium sites and forfeiting non-resident guaranteed income of $151.25 per year, per person. I would not pay that fee to put in for a non-premium unit and I doubt that anyone else would either.