Credit card hits

[Coues247]

7 minutes ago, BritSaz said:

Has anyone seen any youth tags? 

Saw some on Facebook 

[creed]

Used to draw archery antelope with 4-6 points. 24 didn't do it this year. Buddy tried to burn 9 points on a late archery bull tag.  He now has 10. 

[bonecollector]

6 minutes ago, creed said:

Used to draw archery antelope with 4-6 points. 24 didn't do it this year. Buddy tried to burn 9 points on a late archery bull tag.  He now has 10. 

Which late archery hunt takes that many points?

[idgaf]

3 minutes ago, bonecollector said:

Which late archery hunt takes that many points?

Unit 1

[creed]

7 minutes ago, idgaf said:

Unit 1

And 9

[oz31p]

10 minutes ago, bonecollector said:

Which late archery hunt takes that many points?

I can say it’s looking like 5 is not enough for a 23 late archery 

[bonecollector]

dang. More than I would have ever thought. 

[BOHNTR]

Two separate archery bull elk hits early this am. Seems both the wife and I drew.  

[creed]

2 minutes ago, oz31p said:

I can say it’s looking like 5 is not enough for a 23 late archery 

It hasn't been that many years ago that hunt went into  the 3-5 round.

[idgaf]

Its the new world after covid. 2017 - 20 i got 3 late unit 1 archery tags.  Now with 7 points I have a 25% shot or less for the same tag.  Archery antelope tags, 20 years ago were were 70 - 100%, now it will take you 20 points.  

[JSR]

13 minutes ago, oz31p said:

I can say it’s looking like 5 is not enough for a 23 late archery 

Last year 5 was 100% in 23 according to OnX draw odds. 

 

 

 

[Big or Bust]

Seems like a lot of last years draw odds are completely blown out of the water. Like beyond normal creep.  But I don't trust AZGFD's draw process in the least bit.  

 

[stanley]

19 minutes ago, JSR said:

Last year 5 was 100% in 23 according to OnX draw odds. 

 

 

 

 

Wondering how OnX does their math...  Seems wonky to me....    For instance, if draw odds are 20% and you have 5 bonus points (plus this year's app, so let's say 6), that does NOT mean you have a 100% chance.  It means you have 6 unique 20% chances.   

The only way a unit is 100% is if it is undersubscribed or if the applicant is in the bonus pass, I THINK.....     Am I missing something??

[Coues247]

7 minutes ago, stanley said:

 

Wondering how OnX does their math...  Seems wonky to me....    For instance, if draw odds are 20% and you have 5 bonus points (plus this year's app, so let's say 6), that does NOT mean you have a 100% chance.  It means you have 6 unique 20% chances.   

The only way a unit is 100% is if it is undersubscribed or if the applicant is in the bonus pass, I THINK.....     Am I missing something??

Edit: I misread what you wrote.

When onx says 100% it is talking about the bonus pass.

[JSR]

8 minutes ago, stanley said:

 

Wondering how OnX does their math...  Seems wonky to me....    For instance, if draw odds are 20% and you have 5 bonus points (plus this year's app, so let's say 6), that does NOT mean you have a 100% chance.  It means you have 6 unique 20% chances.   

The only way a unit is 100% is if it is undersubscribed or if the applicant is in the bonus pass, I THINK.....     Am I missing something??

I think it just means that 100% of applicants that applied for this hunt with 5 points drew the tag last year.