Draw Odds Calculator

[WinMag]

Thoughts on 5BS Archery Bull early or 6A Rifle Bull early with 6 BP

[Flatlander]

Flatlander,

 

 

After reading that. It seems I probably should have put 6a as a second choice to have had a better chance with a nonresident with no bonus points. Correct??

 

 

Take care, Willie

Yes that would have been better, but you still in all likelihood would not have had a chance at your first choice. So the best strategy would have been to apply for hunts that don't meet the NR 10% quota in the bonus pass. However there is no report of which I am aware that provides that info. Applying with a NR always makes getting a tag more difficult. But looking at your choices I kind of doubt that with 500 tags the Unit 8 late hunt will meet the NR quota in the bonus pass so I think you have a puncher's chance. I project your odds to be somewhere on the southside of 15%.

 

 

 

ok, one last one, 19a pronghorn 1st hunt. 10 points

 

Ok maybe two, my daughter said she tired of waiting to hunt elk, so 4 points, 22 oct cow and 22 youth cow.

 

Thanks, Mike

19A Rifle - 3%

19A Archery - 13%

 

4 Bonus Points pretty much gets you your pic of cow hunts. One thought about the 22 youth hunt, it is in Nov. so no bugles. I would go with 3A/3C, 1, 4A, 6A (although I have heard it has gotten tougher) in that order and then 22, 23. I know I am over stepping the realm of my expertise but figured I would throw my .02 in there.

 

 

 

how about unit 6a and 6b early archery with 4 points? Thanks flatlander

6A-17%

6B-22%

 

Question: Do the draw odds posted in the regs account for the bonus pass and 1st/2nd choice pass combined? Wondering what is the best pick with 3 bonus points. I prefer early archery but may consider other options...rifle, muzzy, late archery...

Sorry this took so long. 3 points in general gets you the following:

1) A single digit chance at an early archery bull tag

2) A 1% chance at a muzzy or rifle early tag

3) A 10 - 15% chance at middle of the road early archery hunts

4) A 30% chance at a Nov. Rifle tag

5) A 50% chance at most Nov. Archery tags

6) Near 100% on 6B, 7E, 22 or 23 Nov. archery

 

Good luck everybody! Post up your application choices!

[Camofreak]

I know this is a little late....but how about 7e early archery bull on 5pts??

[Flatlander]

I know this is a little late....but how about 7e early archery bull on 5pts??

24% - 6 Points was the Bonus Pass

[Coues79]

ok, one last one, 19a pronghorn 1st hunt. 10 points

 

Ok maybe two, my daughter said she tired of waiting to hunt elk, so 4 points, 22 oct cow and 22 youth cow.

 

 

Thanks, Mike

 

22 can be a circus for the Oct cow hunt. There's a ton of tags and a ton of folks running around. Nothing compared to the late bull hunts there but the woods are pretty full of folks

[Flatlander]

ok, one last one, 19a pronghorn 1st hunt. 10 points

 

Ok maybe two, my daughter said she tired of waiting to hunt elk, so 4 points, 22 oct cow and 22 youth cow.

 

 

Thanks, Mike

 

22 can be a circus for the Oct cow hunt. There's a ton of tags and a ton of folks running around. Nothing compared to the late bull hunts there but the woods are pretty full of folks

275 folks is a lot to jam into the northern portion of that unit. I bet they have flaggers on the control road.

[azcoues]

thanxz kennyman...if he has 2 people on the app does he send in $7.50 for each person,so 15bucks total will immediately be taken out then wait for the draw to see if he gets a hit?

[bigorange]

thanxz kennyman...if he has 2 people on the app does he send in $7.50 for each person,so 15bucks total will immediately be taken out then wait for the draw to see if he gets a hit?

Yes. $7.50 per person immediately, then the rest $114 per person if you draw...that's on credit card applying online. Paper application you pay all $121.50 per person up front and then get a refund $114 per person if you don't draw...

[azcoues]

thanx bigorange..i finally found info on page 10 of regs,that is going to work out well for him,i also saw that your credit or debit card info needs to be updated by midnight on march 18th 2013...so i assume they will be taking the money out on that date.

[Willyhunts2]

I have a question. I have two points and put in for 5a archery bull September. I put in same hunt first and second. Would this increase my chances of drawing at all or keep me at the same odds, and flatlander what are my draw odds if you have the time to check later. Thanks!

[out2hunt]

Your odds will not increase because they look at both 1st and second choice after the bonus pass. You can put the same hunt in the third choice slot for an additional chance, but likely all the tags are drawn out in the first and second choice pass. I would bet your at about a 17-18% chance maybe even 20%. I am merely speculating as Flatlander is the voice on this topic!

[couesbowhunter1]

can you please check 4 bonus points for unit 27 archery bull! thanks

11% - Took 7 to make the bonus pass

Thank you very much!

[Guest wdenike]

Flatlander,

 

 

Thanks for the input!!! And good luck with your draw. It wiil be a couple of months full of high hopes!!!

 

 

Take care, Willie

[Viper]

Flatlander,

Thanks for the info! Very nice of you to take the time to help all these folks. I hope I have the chance to buy you a beer sometime.

 

I put in for 1) 5B-S early archery bull, 2) 22-S Nov archery bull, 3) 22-N Nov archery bull. It will be a big change hunting elk out of the rut, but maybe I will be hunting elk none the less. Both those Nov hunts had a 90% draw rate.

[Flatlander]

Thoughts on 5BS Archery Bull early or 6A Rifle Bull early with 6 BP

Sorry did not see this before you are looking at 13% on 5BS early archery, and less than 5% on any early rifle tags.

 

I have a question. I have two points and put in for 5a archery bull September. I put in same hunt first and second. Would this increase my chances of drawing at all or keep me at the same odds, and flatlander what are my draw odds if you have the time to check later. Thanks!

Your odds are about 7%. Applying for the same hunt first and second did not really buy you anything. Since you are assigned 3 random numbers (1 for your app. and one for each bp) and then the lowest of the three is selected. When your number is reached they will look at your first and then your second choice to see if any permits are available. Because those are the same its effectively the same as only putting one choice down. Once they have reviewed the 1st and 2nd choice of every applicant, they re-issue people random numbers and then look at the 3rd and 4th choice of every applicant who has not already received a tag. This is then repeated for the 5th choice. So putting the same hunt as your 3rd choice would be ineffective, because if any tags were available you would have already received it in the 1-2 pass. I hope this helps, its a little complicated so I recommend visiting the link I shared earlier and reading it a few times.