No Man’s Land

[BowHiker]

Am I officially in no man’s land?

I have 16 mule deer points as a resident. Looking at GoHunt, the bonus pass odds have shifted from 17 pts to 22 pts in the last 5 years for the 12AW late hunt. The tags were a bit lower from 2022-2024, so that kept more people in line. Will I ever catch that point creep?

Burn em on an early Kaibab hunt or keep riding the train? 

[Flatlander]

You’re not in No Man’s land, you just don’t have the points for what you want. The kaibab is wildly unpredictable with tag numbers swinging with drought and winter conditions.

You could end up chasing the late hunt for a LONG time as many dudes in the same boat as you figure out they don’t have enough for the strip and drop to the Kaibab.

There are muzzleloader hunts that are just a week or so earlier than the late hunt.

There is archery.

December desert hunts.

You could enjoy 10 days on the Bab in October.

I’d say you have some great options.

[Roosevelt Mark]

I have 12 or 13 points, I'm going to try to bang in 12aw October. Life is too short. 

Anyone know my odds?

[idgaf]

4 hours ago, Roosevelt Mark said:

I have 12 or 13 points, I'm going to try to bang in 12aw October. Life is too short. 

Anyone know my odds?

100% according to onx

[wildwoody]

ill take the early hunt anytime. 

[NOTAGS]

I’ll take any Kaibab hunt anytime…however, I quit putting in  for it as it takes too flipping long to draw even an early tag anymore. I can’t leave bonus points in my  will, so I’m using them as fast as I can get them , lol

[PRDATR]

2 hours ago, wildwoody said:

ill take the early hunt anytime. 

The later hunts can be very cold if you are tent camping and the possibility of a heavy snow is always there.

[trphyhntr]

12 hours ago, BowHiker said:

Am I officially in no man’s land?

I have 16 mule deer points as a resident. Looking at GoHunt, the bonus pass odds have shifted from 17 pts to 22 pts in the last 5 years for the 12AW late hunt. The tags were a bit lower from 2022-2024, so that kept more people in line. Will I ever catch that point creep?

Burn em on an early Kaibab hunt or keep riding the train? 

Put in for the late desert muley hunt 

[NOTAGS]

14 hours ago, Roosevelt Mark said:

I have 12 or 13 points, I'm going to try to bang in 12aw October. Life is too short. 

Anyone know my odds?

according to HuntersTrailhead, the 12 or 13 will make a difference.  Based on last year, 12 pts  is 100% for 12AE, 59% for 12 AW.  13 pts will get you invited to  either  event.

[Titanium700]

Shoot I’m a non res. 
I’ve got 23 points and the hunt I want 5 yrs ago I could have but now looks like another 3-4 years before I can draw. 
I’m kinda in the same boat……chasing the point creep. 

[yotebuster]

3 hours ago, Titanium700 said:

Shoot I’m a non res. 
I’ve got 23 points and the hunt I want 5 yrs ago I could have but now looks like another 3-4 years before I can draw. 
I’m kinda in the same boat……chasing the point creep. 

I hate to burst your bubble, but if you’re in the 20+ point slot as a NR and still 3-4 years out you won’t live long enough to get what you want unless you’re 30 right now.   I would burn on an early Kaibab hunt while you still can, as that will probably pass you up in the next couple years as the “strip tag or bust” crowd is gonna realize they’re never gonna catch it.